Frances #16 insist on north FL to south SC

[ncweatherwizard]

I insist on extreme northern Florida through Georgia--and I'm not afraid to shift right either--because this seems plausible (not necessarily likely however) as well, depending upon forward speed between 36 and 72 hours.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[yoda]

I insist on extreme northern Florida through Georgia--and I'm not afraid to shift right either--because this seems plausible (not necessarily likely however) as well, depending upon forward speed between 36 and 72 hours.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

I agree with you totally on your possible locations for landfall.

[bigmike]

Very plausiable scenario as it seems nhs will shift track north at 11pm advisory. I have enjoyed reading your forecasts as they have seem well thought and reasoned. Thanks

[tallbunch]

ummmmmmm, WOW!

I also enjoy reading your entries

[jaysonx]

I just don't see this happening.... this storm is moving WNW at a pretty good clip, it is going to take A LOT to steer this thing into GA or SC.... It is a CAT4 borderline CAT5 storm..

[jaysonx]

Straight from the 11PM discussion:

FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z ADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

Georgia or South Carolina? No way in the world.

[paulvogel]

florida fcsters have been dsaying florida all week


Fcsters with NC in their handle have been calling Carolina all week.

I call it the homeopathic effect. You magnetize yourselves, and draw the cane towards you.

Well, folks, Nature could care less than zero for you.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I insist on completely not agreeing with you and your projections. They are simply wrong, IMO.