they now think a turn

[AlexiBlue]

Seems to me that just about all the models are pretty much crazy at this point. So who knows where or what at this point? I think perhaps by morning or mid-day tomorrow the models will have far more of a handle on this thing.

[obxhurricane]

I think perhaps by morning or mid-day tomorrow the models will have far more of a handle on this thing.

Don't bet on it...

[tdess02]

For 5oth time!
This ia a Florida event. Hurricane lover must want this thing in his backyard!
I dont wish cast. I dont live anywhere near Florida. If Frances does turn north and misses Florida, I will be the first to get on this board and admit I was wrong.

[hurricane_lover]

:sigh:

[Mello1]

Brent, wh yare you doing this? This is serious. I am trying to save lives here.

This thing is a carolina Hurricane, people. Brent, stop wit hthis stuff.

I think that everyone needs to get a grip. If anyone knew for certain where this thing will hit, they would probably be a millionaire right now. This is about discussion and no opinions are suppressed here. Everyone in FL, GA and SC should be on high alert; hope for the best and brace for the worst. No one should let their guard down now at this point.

[spaceisland]

I certanly do not want it to be a Florida storm... or a Carolina storm either, but I have to agree with the observations of Innotech. This hurricane, strong as it is, will be deflected by the pressure and wind ridge... right into Florida. Perhaps the model runs going north are not adequately "seeing" this ridge. No matter, I go on record as a Florida east coast hit. It is already in a much better position to do so then Floyd... and I watched that one go by just in the nick of time!

[stormwatcher]

It's a FL sotrm. HMMM... That's what they said about Floyd. Don't wish it on you - but I hope you're right.

[Bane]

Actually, it isn't that far off of where Floyd was at the same point.

[Guest]

I am actually anticipating a more west turn.

[stormwatcher]

Once again I hope you're right - but I'll beleive it when I see it.

[dhweather]

I like the A98E solution, it's the BOMB!!!

[hurricane_lover]

How can I be called a wishcaster when I live in Miami, Fl ?

[Dean4Storms]

For every model taking the storm northward I can show you two that takes it across Florida. Frances is still moving between 280-290 and if you were to draw a straight line would take you into SE Florida. Sure I know, some of the models take Frances more northward and since she was east of PR these same models were doing the same thing then. Why? They have missed the pumping of the subtropical ridge, it's strength and it's westward movement all along, now these same people and some forecasterwishers throw belief into them? ( I got some sale calls I need to make) . On top of that, they continue to ignore the digging of the trough further southward out west which in turn pumps the heights in the east. How many times have you heard, trough out west, ridge in the east, it's pretty simple. The ridge over the Atlantic will be re-inforced if you will by a series of diving ridges out of Canada into the NE CONUS extending down to the Carolinas. This scenario has historically (go back 100 yrs, show me when a Cat. 3 or higher anywhere near this Lat. and Long. that struck north of central Florida) steered TC's wnw toward Florida or the Straits.

[Canelaw99]

Well said Dean....

[wlfpack81]

no offense but FL is a magnet state itself. If you were watching TWC tonite you would've saw a graphic that stated over the last 50yrs of all the hurricanes that have hit the U.S. 31% of them have gone into FL with NC 2nd at 24%. So while NC is a magnet state FL is still worse and I really wish the talk of "Florida rarely getting hurricanes" would stop. As someone with a degree in meteorology I just laugh when people act like hurricanes/tropical systems in general our a 1 in a million occurence in that state.