Question about High Pressure

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have been looking at the water vapor loops for a while now and notice to the Northeast of Frances the winds are coming from the Northeast with the High in the Southeast US. Which to me would keep her from going much more north. Also the high to Frances' east seem to be getting a little stronger and looks to be getting ready to give her another surge to the west. Is there anyone possibilty of the highs merging and/or strengthening and keeping Frances on a Westerly course through time? That is just my thoughts and would appreciate anyone's comments on this. Professionally or Not.

[wjs3]

I saw that earlier too and am curious. Can someone tell us what we're looking at (the clockwise circ over the SE) and how we should think about it?

[PurdueWx80]

There is a weak couplet (ridge along SE coast, trough immediately SE of it steering Frances' outflow to the northeast) there. The ridge part of it is pretty strong, and the trough seems to be weakening (becoming less dark on a wv loop). The ridge at 500 steers all the way back to the western Gulf. The only weakness I see is above that, and it's in the central Gulf. No real trough (except to the north over Arkansas)...just a weakness between the southwestern US ridge and the one N of Frances. These are very fine details which are quite important. Hopefully all the models will catch on tonight so that we have no more surprises.

[wjs3]

Purdue:

Thanks for the explanation. Will be looking forward to the model runs tonight to see if they pick it up.