OK...so what in the world is going on anyways...

[Pebbles]

was thinking this morning Frances wasn't looking so impressive as she has (she is of course still pretty powerful) and was just going through an IRC..but as the afternoon wears on I don't know what to think...anyone wanna clue me into what going on...would say maybe she's getting sheared but can't possibly see what causeing her raggedy look?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

I don't know.

[jaysonx]

This thing is going to bomb out in the next 12 - 24 hours. It will probaby achieve cat5 status sometme during that time. However, I do not believe that it will be that strong at landfall.

[dennis1x1]

shes looking better than 6 hours ago...but you can see something disturbing the NW section of the storm.

latest recon has pressure down and winds up though.....so if anything shes strengthening since 6 hours ago.

[dennis1x1]

all of the "cat 5" people need a reality check....cat 5 storms are VERY rare...and even more rare this far west....

could it happen....possibly....will it...most likely not

there is only about a 24 hour window left for that possibility and based on sat pics i dont see any signs of it happening anytime soon.

after that you have land interaction and forecast sheer developing.

[Pebbles]

all of the "cat 5" people need a reality check....cat 5 storms are VERY rare...and even more rare this far west....

could it happen....possibly....will it...most likely not

there is only about a 24 hour window left for that possibility and based on sat pics i dont see any signs of it happening anytime soon.

after that you have land interaction and forecast sheer developing.

I disagree with anyone that thinks Cat 5 needs a reality check...I think around 24 hours this will be the most IDEAL time for it to go CAT 5... the waters it will be reaching are unbelievably WARM... even with the bahamas it's going to be in perfect conditions to intensify...now I am not saying it will...but if it is going to that's when it will. Just look at charley..it hit those warm waters and blew up in everyones faces.

[nomolos]

*crosses fingers* hope it doesnt get any bigger!

[hurricane_lover]

Cat 5 storm by tomorrow.

[Guest]

all of the "cat 5" people need a reality check....cat 5 storms are VERY rare...and even more rare this far west....

could it happen....possibly....will it...most likely not

there is only about a 24 hour window left for that possibility and based on sat pics i dont see any signs of it happening anytime soon.

after that you have land interaction and forecast sheer developing.

some weenies I tell ya...

[PurdueWx80]

Steering currents will also become much weaker in 24-60 hours. If there are light winds steering the storm, there will be no or little shear more than likely. SSTs near and west of the Bahamas are warmer than anywhere along Frances' track. It is possible as long as convection tigthens around the eye tonight. There are multiple eyewalls competing at this time, and as soon as one takes over, it should deepen a little more.

[dennis1x1]

sheer and light steering currents are 2 completely seperate things......you can have a completely idle hurricane undergoing major sheer.

[abajan]

Many of us have been expecting this to reach Cat 5 for quite a while now and it hasn't happened.

IMO it's pretty much maxed out at 140 mph. It may periodically hit 145 mph but no more.

As was stated earlier, Cat 5s are a rarity: about 1 per decade.

[dennis1x1]

and a storm on its way to cat 5 sure doesnt look like this on satellite!!!


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[Brent]

Just had a professional met on another board tell me "She's rockin now, will likely be a Cat 5 soon".

Sorry, I don't see your point. All it's doing is getting more compact and reorganizing.

[dennis1x1]

doubtful any "prof met" told you that as anyone can look at the sat pic and see different....


any cat 5 storm will be almost perfectly symetrical and have solid red around the eye...the eye will also have perfectly smooth edges.....

at the current time frances is much closer to a 3 than a 5.

[dhweather]

I don't think she'll get cat 5 now, not with island interaction. Two nights ago, she had perfect symmetry and very cold tops, I still think she was close to 155 that night as she'll be.

[Weather]

doubtful any "prof met" told you that as anyone can look at the sat pic and see different....


any cat 5 storm will be almost perfectly symetrical and have solid red around the eye...the eye will also have perfectly smooth edges.....

at the current time frances is much closer to a 3 than a 5.

Sorry, but I saw the same professional met say that. It's true.

[dennis1x1]

well thats one prof met i would never listen to again.