Why Frances May Go More West

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canegrl04
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Why Frances May Go More West

#1 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:12 pm

Theres a large upper low to the East of Frances. :eek:
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dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:13 pm

and the models missed it?
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ericinmia
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:15 pm

Bill Kamal in miami mentioned something about his serious worries with the storm slowing... and its possible turn to the west. He also sited the ridge building in above it nd joing with the bermuda high...

-Eric
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wjs3
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#4 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:22 pm

Dumb question for someone who knows more:

There's a clockwise spin over N/SC--easy to see in sat. pics. Oriented kind of NE-SW...

Is that the ridge? Evidence of it?
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Hyperstorm
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#5 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:28 pm

Sorry, but the large ULL to the East of Frances deflecting a more westward motion is one of the most untrue statements I've heard in a while.

It is extremely common to see this to the east of a tropical cyclone. In fact, believe it or not, it is due to Frances outflow! Yes, the way you hear it. This has nothing to do with the motion of the storm. In fact, I can tell you more...Isabel last year had it also...Floyd had it as well...let me see...Fran as well.

The bottom line?....It has NOTHING to do with the forecast motion of the storm. Look towards the west for a pattern...
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rbaker

#6 Postby rbaker » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:58 pm

possibly it would on a shallow system, frances is not a shallow system like a weak ts, or td. There is a small high about jax still there today, look at your water vapor. In fact. todays the first day here in central fla that we have had out typical afternoon 5pm thunderstorms, in quite a while. This usually depicts a bermuda high north of my lat which is about 29.0n long 82.5 w, so it would make since this storm could get pulled back west.
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