18z ETA Direct hit on MIAMI!

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Vortex
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18z ETA Direct hit on MIAMI!

#1 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:20 pm

Looking at some of the better performing models the last few days eta is one as well as lbar I disagree with NHC's 72 hour landfall...It's not going to Melbourne, I do not expect it to make landfall any further North than Jupiter and I'm callig for a landfall between Miami and West Palm Beach. Here's the 18z ETA:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
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#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:23 pm

:eek: Wow reminds me of 12 years ago.
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#3 Postby ericinmia » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:05 pm

yikes... thats no good!
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#4 Postby wsquared77 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:07 pm

that sux...but didn't I read somewhere on another post that eta isn't really a model?
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#5 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:07 pm

wsquared77 wrote:that sux...but didn't I read somewhere on another post that eta isn't really a model?


ETA is a model, just not a very good tropical model. Better with snowstorms and such.
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#6 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:08 pm

Uh Oh :eek: :eek: :eek:

Can imagine what a strong cat 4 hurricane can do to a big city like Miami
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#7 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:11 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Uh Oh :eek: :eek: :eek:

Can imagine what a strong cat 4 hurricane can do to a big city like Miami


Andrew, only move the Homestead damage to downtown.
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#8 Postby obxhurricane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:23 pm

Past history shows the ETA is not anywhere near reliable when it concerns a tropical cyclone. I'd be focusing on the GFS...which is now singing the same tune for consecutive runs...
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#9 Postby cebers01 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:28 pm

BINGO OBX! WE HAVE A WINNER! Watch for something between the GFDL and GFS models to be indicated in NHC forecast at 11PM. The outliers that have shown her slowing enough to turn a bit more north may yet verify... And as for the LBAR, I'm not sure it's much better, as I think its being extrapolated out too far still yet... Another 24 hours, and let's see where we are...
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lwg8tr

Now we count the GDFL as accurate

#10 Postby lwg8tr » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:45 pm

cebers01 wrote:BINGO OBX! WE HAVE A WINNER! Watch for something between the GFDL and GFS models to be indicated in NHC forecast at 11PM. The outliers that have shown her slowing enough to turn a bit more north may yet verify... And as for the LBAR, I'm not sure it's much better, as I think its being extrapolated out too far still yet... Another 24 hours, and let's see where we are...


Seems like we pick the models which agree with our forecasts. The GDFL and the GFS have been awful this week, they have uderestimated the ridge, went way to east and north. They were so lousy acording to the NHC's own guys on the ground, they think these models are hosed. This is a Florida storm, The Cape to Miami. This model talk is as silly as the threads in which we study wobbles on a 12 frame satellite image.
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#11 Postby dhweather » Wed Sep 01, 2004 6:48 pm

The ETA is a short range nont-really-tropical model.

That said, it's done a pretty good job with Frances.
I this is a little South, but it's still in the range of the clustering of models.

Now, A98E, HA!!!!
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#12 Postby obxhurricane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:08 pm

Seems like we pick the models which agree with our forecasts.


I've been saying for days this storm would make landfall near Cape Canaveral.
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