I wasn't here in S. FL for Andrew, but I know many people who were, and I have seen posts on here from people who were. All of those are commenting on how similar this situation is to the situation with Andrew....similar atmospheric set-ups, similar discussions, similar uncertainities, etc.
I'm just wondering what others think about the potential for Frances to pull an Andrew, so to speak....?
Potential for 2nd Andrew?
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Canelaw99
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Potential for 2nd Andrew?
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skysummit
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Brent wrote:cajungal wrote:It is like Andrew is certain ways. But, the only difference is that it won't make second landfall anywhere near Louisiana like Andrew did.
If Frances crosses near Miami, don't rule it out.
I don't see it going that far west. IF...IF, it does cross into the GOM, I'm thinking it to turn north somewhere between Mobile and Appalachicola.
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Huckster
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I don't think this thing is going to pull an Andrew on us, trackwise anyway. However if it does end up hitting farther south near Miami and emerging into the Gulf with a significant west component, then all bets MIGHT be off, reason being, that there's no indication of anything like that in the forecast track from TPC or in their discussion. If it pulls a stunt like that, it would mean that everything else down the road is also likely different. If all that were to happen, it would mean that currently we don't really have a good handle on this situation. So far, I think TPC looks right on though.
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God lufode middaneard swa þæt he sealde his ancennedan Sunu, þæt nan ne forwurðe þe on hine gelyfð, ac hæbbe þæt ece lif. - Old English/Anglo-Saxon, John 3:16
There is a High pressure area to the north but trying to forecast its future strength alone is difficult. This is not billiards there is dynamic flow so a left hand turn in the track would occur unpredictably in response to the ridge. We may not know the exact track until Frances makes the left turn and speeds up.
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