Looks Like She's Turning NORTH

[Steve H.]

I hope this isn't wishful thinking, but last 3-4 frames show her going NNW. Thoughts!!!

[Josephine96]

Not a clue as of yet lol

[Canelaw99]

Just saw the 5pm coordinates and she's moving the same: .1 or .2 N and .6 W....not a more northerly turn....

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. Ok Cane.. thank you

[ALhurricane]

Looks to have been a NW wobble. The latest frames show a WNW motion continuing.

[dennis1x1]

5pm discussion makes mention of the reliability of the gfdl model...if i were in far north florida or georgia id be keeping a very very close eye on this.

as for the storm itself...looks like some shear occuring from the northeast....definitely not looking like a cat 4 storm right now from a satellite perspective...will be interesting to see if the pressure and winds start following which i would expect.

[Lindaloo]

wobble wobble wobble.

[Thunder44]

Looks more like a NW movement in the last hour or so to me. Give a few more hours to see if this is just a wobble or an actual trend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Pebbles]

she's been sidestepping quite a bit the past day or two

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Stormsfury]

Take note, the strongest storms have more in the way of extreme and more pronounced wobbles ...

[caneman]

Take note, the strongest storms have more in the way of extreme and more pronounced wobbles ...

Perhaps could have just been the EWR cycle too! No slow down in speed either. We'll need a few hour trend.

[vbhoutex]

she's been sidestepping quite a bit the past day or two

to be expected with a storm of this size and strength which is bumping up against a ridge which is not a nice smooth line of air.

Take note, the strongest storms have more in the way of extreme and more pronounced wobbles ...

and create their own environment and/or enhance ridges that they are close to/bumping up against.

Perhaps could have just been the EWR cycle too! No slow down in speed either. We'll need a few hour trend.

Another reason it will seem to wobble and or sidestep when it is just the EWR making it look like a bigger wobble than it is. At this speed I would look for more like several hours before I would "announce" a trend. 3 or 4 frames on a loop are never enough to make that kind of determination.

[Brent]

It wobbled just in time for the eyewall to miss Grand Turk. It's back WNW now. Steve Lyons says it appears to be strengthening now.

[Stormsfury]

It wobbled just in time for the eyewall to miss Grand Turk. It's back WNW now. Steve Lyons says it appears to be strengthening now.

one issue ... temporarily it APPEARS to have a little dry air in between the concentric eyewalls at the moment ... fluctuations in the short term ... but the storm just has that feel of a Coke bottle that been shaken violently, and someone's about to open the cap ...

SF

[LilNoles2004]

I get that same feeling... I keep waiting for the moment when she explodes into a Cat-5... I'm hoping it happens NOW because if it does, it gives her time to weaken/fluctuate prior to landfall... my gut is telling me it's going to happen just off of FLA's coast.

[Skywatch_NC]

It's really too bad the subtropical ridge couldn't have buckled big time or go away and allow Frances to have headed north WAY earlier and just be a fish storm!

I think about and pray for my cousins who reside in Sarasota as well as for all of you other Floridians.

Eric