5pm still 140mph 938... reivesed

[c5Camille]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 00406.html

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 32


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 01, 2004



an Air Force reconnaissance plane flew again in the eye of Frances
and estimated a minimum pressure of 938 mb. The cloud tops have
warmed but the plane measured 131 knots at flight level. The
initial intensity is kept at 120 knots. The official intensity
forecast calls for the possibility of additional strengthening
during the next day or two as indicated by the SHIPS model...but
most likely the hurricane will go through intensity fluctuations
during eyewall replacement cycles. If fact...the 1719z recon fix
reported a double eyewall suggesting that another of these
processes is taking place. The hurricane is forecast to reach the
U.S. Coast as a major hurricane.

Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 01/2100z 22.0n 71.0w 120 kt
12hr VT 02/0600z 23.1n 73.0w 125 kt
24hr VT 02/1800z 24.3n 74.9w 125 kt
36hr VT 03/0600z 25.4n 76.7w 125 kt
48hr VT 03/1800z 26.5n 78.5w 125 kt
72hr VT 04/1800z 28.0n 80.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 05/1800z 29.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 06/1800z 32.5n 84.5w 25 kt...inland

[Brent]

Showing a Melbourne landfall still.

HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z WED SEP 01 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 71.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 55SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 160SE 160SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 71.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 70.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 80SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 71.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[dennis1x1]

the most interesting thing on this discussion is the blurb about the reliablity of the gfdl model.....hmmmm.

[c5Camille]

this is gonna be a three ring circus...
the cone still covers all of Florida...

wobbles mean a lot down the road now...