18Z eta

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PurdueWx80
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18Z eta

#1 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:36 pm

I hate to keep posting on every model run, but it's getting down to the wire. The 18Z Eta is relatively consistent w/ the 12Z run although it is further south. Actually, it is only about 6-10 hours faster and slightly further south....near or just south of Miami on Saturday morning.

Also, we are getting to the point where the players are coming onto the field - the main one being the trough in the Pacific Northwest. The denser network of surface and upper observations over the continent should allow for better resolution of the trough and/or any other feature important to Frances' future. In general, this should allow for more consistency between model runs and between each model.
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 01, 2004 3:44 pm

Argh! Don't say south of Miami! :-( If it's gotta come here, at least let the center come in to the north ...
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#3 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 4:18 pm

Purdue - Can you possibly post a link for that??? Thanks!
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#4 Postby GNWeather » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:21 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/18/index_l.shtml
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#5 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:23 pm

Why is the NHC considering a shift north???? ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr: :roll:
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#6 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:23 pm

Thanks...sorry about that. From the same root page, you can also get the 18Z GFS, which does a Floydish track, but slows to a complete halt in the little notch between FL, GA and SC, only 100-200 miles off the coasts. It basically gets stuck between the two ridges and troughs in non-existent steering at 96 hours. That seems a little inappropriate to me, but we shall see.
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Make up your mind Frances!

#7 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:28 pm

:eek: That is WAY too close for my comfort - argh! This is just SO frustrating!!!
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Anonymous

#8 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:30 pm

Sounds like the GFS agrees with both the 00z and 12z Euro as well as the 00z and 12z Canadian... 12z Euro is UGLY for my area :eek:

Euro... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4090112!!/

Canadian...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation
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