18z models are out

[Brent]

[snoopj]

That's one hell of a turn on one of those (color blindness and those charts don't mix). I like the 90 degree angle turn (the one towards the NNE) philosophy. Of course, there's not enough weed at a Grateful Dead concert that's going to convince me that it's going to happen.

--snoopj

[krisj]

What is up with that BAMM model?

[CaptinCrunch]

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[cycloneye]

CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040901 1800 040902 0600 040902 1800 040903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.8N 70.6W 22.9N 72.7W 23.9N 74.4W 24.8N 75.7W
BAMM 21.8N 70.6W 22.7N 72.6W 23.7N 74.3W 24.7N 75.7W
A98E 21.8N 70.6W 22.5N 73.4W 23.3N 75.8W 23.9N 77.8W
LBAR 21.8N 70.6W 22.8N 72.9W 23.8N 75.1W 24.7N 77.2W
SHIP 120KTS 122KTS 125KTS 125KTS
DSHP 120KTS 122KTS 125KTS 125KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040903 1800 040904 1800 040905 1800 040906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 76.8W 26.5N 78.3W 27.5N 79.1W 30.3N 80.2W
BAMM 25.5N 76.9W 26.3N 78.9W 26.4N 79.8W 29.5N 79.2W
A98E 23.6N 79.7W 22.3N 82.5W 19.2N 84.3W 16.3N 85.3W
LBAR 25.6N 79.2W 27.4N 82.5W 29.3N 84.8W 31.8N 84.9W
SHIP 125KTS 116KTS 111KTS 98KTS
DSHP 125KTS 81KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 70.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 67.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.3N LONM24 = 65.0W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 941MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Brent]

Well the good news is that it doesn't look like it'll be in the GOM(if it does) long enough to regain much strength.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Is that black line going all the way to TX actually one of the models??

[golter]

No...

[Guest]

then what does the black dotted line represent?

Thanks

[Guest]

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WXBRAD saw this one!

[PTrackerLA]

Black dotted line represents the track if it continued on it's current motion.

[Guest]

Black dotted line represents the track if it continued on it's current motion.

which is extremely unlikely at this point? right.

[Josephine96]

Still has several models to Central Fla.. The hours are dwindling.. Watches will probably be issued tonight maybe

[PurdueWx80]

What should scare all of you is that the intensity models have now come into agreement that this will be a strong Cat 4 at or near landfall. Also, as a side note, the 12Z Euro follows almost the exact same path as the UKMET...Cape Canaveral to the Big Bend of FL then west just north of the panhandle coastline. It goes in quick but then slows considerably which would = major heavy rainfall in the SE if it verifies.

[dhweather]

Maybe watches tonight

[Rainband]

Black dotted line represents the track if it continued on it's current motion.

This storm is huge. It would be a mistake to pay attention to that line.

[Josephine96]

I even heard a local met here say it could take almost an entire day for the storm to leave Central Florida..

I pray to God that he's kidding because if he's not a catastrophic event will occur

[Brent]

I even heard a local met here say it could take almost an entire day for the storm to leave Central Florida..

I pray to God that he's kidding because if he's not a catastrophic event will occur

He's serious. Look at the NHC projected path. 8am Saturday near it's landfall point around Melbourne and then 8am Sunday near Ocala.

Keep in mind though, it won't be a hurricane the whole time. Flooding will become the biggest threat after Saturday Night.

[x-y-no]

What is up with that BAMM model?

The BAMs use the GFS as thier background, and the GFS 6 and 12 Z runs (not sure wich one this is based on) take her into South Carolina.

So I think the BAMM wanted to turn her west, but got sucked back by the GFS background.

[cape_escape]

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