SFL Concern Raising Bigtime

[MWatkins]

Not to hype...because I'm usually the last person to do this...but the probability of a SFL landfall has increased this afternoon based on two critical pieces of information.

1. The most recent 12 hour motion is 14 knots. On the 6Z hurricane center track...the hurricane should be slowing down now to 12 knots.

2. The most recent 12 hour direction of motion is 285. The hurricane center was expecting 295 by now.

The higher forward speed and direction of motion...should they continue...have very immediate implications. The UKMET and NOGAPS and other models are latching on this solution and have the storm moving faster in the next 48 to 60 hours. This means the hurricane could be on the SFL coast as soon as Friday morning.

No question given this information that the NHC will hurricane watches for the coast at 5PM.

MW

[Brent]

You live in the Miami area?

[Rainband]

Mike if that verifies how will my area fair?? I live 40miles nw of tampa on the west coast. Thanks

[MWatkins]

You live in the Miami area?

To the north of there roughtly between west palm and lauderdale.

MW

[Josephine96]

Watches in my opinion will go up on the Central Florida coast and down to parts of South Florida

[CaptinCrunch]

From another post I made:


"Frances will not make that forecasted NW turn, she will continue to track W to a slight N of W track and at present speed landfall will be between W Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale around 12pm Friday as a CAT 5.

I did have Frances making landfall around Miami but for that to happen she will need to move due west for at least 4 to 6 hrs over the next 24 hours.

As far as the GOM I'm looking at MS for 2nd landfall as a strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4."

[x-y-no]

Yes, I agree. Course has been rock solid for over 24 hours. I don't see the gradual turn happening at all. She turned a little more northerly - from about 275 to 285 yesterday morning, that's it.

I'm seeing very little indication of a slowdown as well. The 2pm advisory said 15mph, but I'm not sure about that.

[Collier Canetracker]

Mike, when you say "SFL landfall" and "SFL coast" do you mean Palm Beach? Or south of there...Miami/Fort Lauderdale?

[jlauderdal]

Not to hype...because I'm usually the last person to do this...but the probability of a SFL landfall has increased this afternoon based on two critical pieces of information.

1. The most recent 12 hour motion is 14 knots. On the 6Z hurricane center track...the hurricane should be slowing down now to 12 knots.

2. The most recent 12 hour direction of motion is 285. The hurricane center was expecting 295 by now.

The higher forward speed and direction of motion...should they continue...have very immediate implications. The UKMET and NOGAPS and other models are latching on this solution and have the storm moving faster in the next 48 to 60 hours. This means the hurricane could be on the SFL coast as soon as Friday morning.

No question given this information that the NHC will hurricane watches for the coast at 5PM.

MW

excellant analysis from mw as usual. well if the tension level in my office is any indication, miami lakes florida is going to take a direct hit. people are definetely on edge. of course its mostly the people that arent prepared with food or water or shutters are the most tense. if one more person asks me if it is curving out to see i am going to go postal.

[caneman]

Mike if that verifies how will my area fair?? I live 40miles nw of tampa on the west coast. Thanks

Rainband this is worse case scenario for us in Tampa area and is what I feared. No slow down in speed, landfall between Ft. Laudersale and West Palm and continued WNW would put the storm over us and if it keeps going this fast. Possible high end Cat. 1 to minimum Cat. 2 Everyone on the West coast should prepare. I know from being in Kissimmee for Charley that in 90 to 105 mile hours power goes out, trees and signs come down. Prepare like you won't have power for a week to be safe.

[WeatherNLU]

Warnings are going up for the east coast of Florida including West Palm Beach at 5PM. So I've been told.

[jlauderdal]

Mike, when you say "SFL landfall" and "SFL coast" do you mean Palm Beach? Or south of there...Miami/Fort Lauderdale?

sfl means palm beach, broward, dade.

[mobilebay]

Mike take care of yourself. DO you have the new NAGOPS and EURO(12Z)also why do think the models are still north.

[dennis1x1]

even charlie moving at 20+ was barely a cat 1 when it made it through.

the major slowing is supposed to occur on friday and saturday....i doubt frances will be a hurricane if it reaches the west coast.

[mobilebay]

even charlie moving at 20+ was barely a cat 1 when it made it through.

the major slowing is supposed to occur on friday and saturday....i doubt frances will be a hurricane if it reaches the west coast.

Yeah but Charley didn't go straight across. He wen't at An angle witch takes longer. It will still be A hurricane. (see Andrew)

[dennis1x1]

not if it slows to less than 10mph......its projected to be inland for 24hrs +

at 15mph it would have a chance.....

as for andrew......was moving fairly fast also.....was also much stronger than frances is or is projected to be at landfall.

[Air Force Met]

it's been moving at 278 degrees...form the 15z advisory to the 18z update. It has to turn to 300 now in order to make the 06z advisory position.

[Rainband]

Both Charley and Andrew were small storms size wise compared to Frances. The circulation will impact much more Real estate.

[StJoe]

You are not kidding, Rainband! This storm is huge and she is pissed off with everybody tlaking about her! Typical female, you piss her off enough, and she will take you down!

[Ladybug]

volousia and brevard counties have closed down schools starting tomorrow