Frances forecast #18... now into the GOM

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Lindaloo
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#21 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:44 am

bfez1 wrote:OMG, New Orleans!!!
That is me. Please say it isn't so. We would be an aquarium. :cry:



:eek:
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DIDDLESBABE
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#22 Postby DIDDLESBABE » Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:47 am

Hello - New to this board, but not others. This is a scary storm, for
everyone - but in Lee Co. especially - we are really nervous.

Talking of crossing Fl. further South concerns me ! How far South and
what impact are we talking about here? Any help advice for our area
"greatly appreciated".
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Derek Ortt

#23 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:48 am

even if it turns NW, it may turn back to the west as the ridge builds back in, which is why I am now leaning to the GOM
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#24 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:50 am

Hey Derek, what do you think of the 12z GFS? Is it on crack like the 6z one? And if the 12z ECMWF shows the same track as the 0z, IMHO, some tracks are going to be shifted north a lot.
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#25 Postby TexasStooge » Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:51 am

Thanx for the info.
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Derek Ortt

#26 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:00 pm

just look at the initials of GFS and you'll get what I think of that model. This mornings run obviously doesnt understand dynamics all that well.

As for the amount of weakening, it could well be 3 cats though intensify more than I expect offshore as its size may allow for a quick recovery and little core disruption. Andrew weakened 2 categories in just 4 hours being inland
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Derek Ortt

#27 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:02 pm

I wont touch the ECMWF for tropical cyclones if Christ himself asked me to. It is often pathetic for a TC forecast
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Matthew5

#28 Postby Matthew5 » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:02 pm

This hurricane appears to be growing in size. When do you think this eyewall replacement will be over derek?
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crazycajuncane
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#29 Postby crazycajuncane » Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:04 pm

I agree with this forecast very much. It makes a lot of sense. Now let's see how it plays out the next couple of hours.
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