Critical hours ahead for Florida

[cycloneye]

The next few hours will be very important to see what part of Florida will get the landfall so those who live in the Florida Penninsulamust watch how that eye moves.

[yoda]

Totally agree. I would say from now to about 8 PM are the critical hours to watch.

[Hyperstorm]

You're exactly right, Cycloneye. If this one doesn't turn more northerly (NW) really soon, then southern Florida might want to start making preparations for a potential disaster. If it starts to turn before the day's out, we in north central Florida will be in for some really nasty weather come later this week and into the weekend.

These next few hours will definitely be crucial...

[TexasStooge]

Like what I mentioned in my earlier posts, all shipments of Jewelery to Florida are post poned until all the bad weather has stopped.

[Rainband]

My local was on the phone with a lady from the NHC..she said "don't pay attention to the line, this storm is large and forecast to move slow" At this point all of Florida is in trouble if this verifies

[cycloneye]

However up the east coast those folks have to watch the movement too in the next few hours in case it deviates more north.

[crazycajuncane]

Plan tonight, Leave in the morning!

I'd hate to have to be in south or central Flordia right now. If you move north, you have to move WAY north to escape Frances, because you never know how far north she will hit in Flordia.

If you leave any later than after 4 pm Thursday, to be you could be screwed. If this thing DOESN'T slow down, it will be knocking on Flordia's door on Friday. Just an amazing scenario.

[jztemple]

As a Storm2k newbie, I'd like to say hi!

As a resident of the Space Coast (Brevard County) of Florida, I have to say... eek!

I'm going to be monitoring your forum and the site (plus all the usual sources) for help on deciding whether to evacuate (I'm several miles inland on the mainland in Port St John) or whether to hit the road. And if I do hit the road, where the heck do I go? Most all of Florida looks like it could be a target.

Anyway, thanks for all the good discussion here, it did help during Charley and is helping now.

[Hyperstorm]

The Carolinas are looking less likely by the hour. There really isn't ANY trough anywhere near this system or forecast to be one, to expect a continued northerly component of the motion. This is almost certainly a Florida storm, initally, and then who knows where this will end up. We might be talking about a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week OR we could be looking at a heavy rainmaker for Georgia and the SE US next week...

[Canelaw99]

I am a very south S. FL resident (Homestead, here) and I"m very nervous about this storm. I just haven't been able to buy into the NHC's track so far....I just think overall it's too far north. so...

[vbhoutex]

My local was on the phone with a lady from the NHC..she said "don't pay attention to the line, this storm is large and forecast to move slow" At this point all of Florida is in trouble if this verifies

That is exactly what I said elsewhere. Look at it this way-TS force winds extend out up to 185 miles and Hurricane force winds extend out up to 80 miles. At the widest point the Florida peninsula is like 175 miles wide straight across. That is less than half the possible total width of TS force winds and only a little more than the possible toatl width of hurricane force winds. IF the track up the center verifies FL will literally have a buzzsaw moving right up the center of the state from somewhere S of Ft. Peirce on!!!

But like what this thread is about I am becoming increasingly concerned that the turn is not going to happen or at least not soon enough to prevent a double whammy either in Fl or as far West as NO. As always time will tell, but either way I do not like the scenarios!!!

[Stephanie]

As a Storm2k newbie, I'd like to say hi!

As a resident of the Space Coast (Brevard County) of Florida, I have to say... eek!

I'm going to be monitoring your forum and the site (plus all the usual sources) for help on deciding whether to evacuate (I'm several miles inland on the mainland in Port St John) or whether to hit the road. And if I do hit the road, where the heck do I go? Most all of Florida looks like it could be a target.

Anyway, thanks for all the good discussion here, it did help during Charley and is helping now.

Welcome jztemple! I'm glad that you and all of the other newbies that have recently come onboard are finding S2K helpful. I guess if I was in your position, I would head up towards Georgia. It seems to me that the mostly likely target is the EC of Florida and then inland and across the state to perhaps the panhandle. It doesn't seem like there are too many "safe places" in Florida per se. If ANYTHING, get as far away from the coast as possible.

Good points Luis.

[Nimbus]

As Derek mentioned earlier there are no strong troughs influencing the steering for this storm which begs the question what is steering Frances?

A big system like this would normally start to experience some compounding coriolis effect at these latitudes yet Frances track continues along at less than 290.

The steering flow appears to be generally due west or maybe even slightly to the south of due west. If you take the cosine of the angle difference between Frances's track and the steering flow you will see that any turn to the right will be met with increasing resistance from the steering flow.

Obviously a turn to the right would also be accompanied by a slow down in forward speed for the same reason and by a similar function. This creates a serious problem for the forecasters in terms of landfall timing since a track further south would not only be faster but the coastline of south Florida is much closer. Hope for a slowdown in forward speed soon.

[Guest]

Poor San Salvador. The eye looks like it is going to go right over them.

[Mattie]

As a Storm2k newbie, I'd like to say hi!

As a resident of the Space Coast (Brevard County) of Florida, I have to say... eek!

I'm going to be monitoring your forum and the site (plus all the usual sources) for help on deciding whether to evacuate (I'm several miles inland on the mainland in Port St John) or whether to hit the road. And if I do hit the road, where the heck do I go? Most all of Florida looks like it could be a target.

Anyway, thanks for all the good discussion here, it did help during Charley and is helping now.

I have some friends there and they are going to Biloxi. Their theory (and I concur after being a lifelong hurricane veteran) is to take the dog, the pictures, clothes and important papers and go on a mini-vacation. Better safe than sorry. Unfortunately, they JUST bought their house this year and it will be sad if they do lose what they have worked so hard for. (same holds true for anyone hit by a devastating weather event.)

[Patrick99]

This would be gutsy - but if you really had to leave S. FL, you could almost make a case for Key West. It sounds silly to evacuate TO Key West for a hurricane, but maybe there's good reason to.

[cycloneye]

The 2 PM position 21.8n didn't bring good news for those who live in south florida as it climbed only .1 rom 11 AM.Let'e see at 5 PM where it will be.

[Josephine96]

I still think Central Florida is in the most danger now

[Guest]

I still think Central Florida is in the most danger now

How's that? I'm seeing SFL in the bulls eye based on current track and the fact taht she has remained south of the projections.

[Josephine96]

Because she's moving WNW #1 and #2 because the projected path still has her coming this way..

Plus the size of the storm is just amazing.. If she comes anywhere near us.. the results will be catastrophic