It's easy to see.

[Stormcenter]

O.K. click on the link below and view the satellite loop.

It's easy to see that based on Frances current movement she will not
make landfall where the NHC has it projected to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Two things to note, she needs to start turning (from wnw to nw) very very soon or needs to slow down (from 16mph to 10mph) if the NHC's track is going pan out. I don't see either happening at the moment. It doesn't mean it won't only that it hasn't yet. But with every passing hour the likelihood of a Miami landfall increases.

[yoda]

We will see. However, some of the newer model runs wish to disagree with you... but alas, only time will tell.

[Anonymous]

Pointed it out in another thread, I just wish the NHC would let go of the 'miracle turn'

[c5Camille]

i agree... notice that Frances is already south of
all the models issued three hours ago... all but the
one that has it hittin Nicaragua in 5 days... She's
not below that one..

[rtd2]

qoute "Pointed it out in another thread, I just wish the NHC would let go of the 'miracle turn'"



They will in time...politics and media hype are factors!

[kevin]

all but the
one that has it hittin Nicaragua in 5 days... <<

That was a funny model result huh??

[golter]

Its right on NHC track...NHC call for a slow and gradual turn north. She wast at 270, then 275, then 280, then 285, then 290... see the trend. At no point to they call for her to go 315. Only up to about 310.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its not going to be that easy my friend. Do you honestly think that Frances will continue moving WNW for 3 straight days and hit where you say it will hit? Meteorology is much more complicated then that. The steering currents are going to change just as the NHC said it would. BUT if Frances keeps south of the forecast track (which it looks like it has been a tad bit) then things could get interesting.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Are we looking at the same storm? She is in perfect mild recurve right up the NHC line. She's east of the Bahamas. Why the worried calls for NHC missing this?

If anything, she's showing hints of hitting further north...

[golter]

Are we looking at the same storm? She is in perfect mild recurve right up the NHC line. She's east of the Bahamas. Why the worried calls for NHC missing this?

If anything, she's showing hints of hitting further north...

Finally someone who sees what I see....

[Anonymous]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No...the NHC's track has not verified completely at all. Look at these graphics.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1503W5.gif
This track has the storm completely skirting the Bahaman Islands, but then notice the sat loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
This storm will pass over some of the Bahaman islands on this trajected course, and barring a sharp turn to the NW it will pass south of the NHC track.

I dont see any reason why this storm wont impact the area of Florida between Miami and Lake Okechobee.

[Rainband]

Like I pointed out, The NHC knows what they are doing.

[Anonymous]

They know what they are doing, but their track is too far north I think.

[soonertwister]

If Frances moves at a bearing of about 294.3 degrees for 690 miles at 14 knots, then the eye will be over Miami in 43 hours.

Just a thought...

That would be about 9 am on Friday.

[StJoe]

I totally agree with Houstoner! We are holding on to our pants down here in West Palm!!!