NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 01 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT SEP 4 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
24.0N 74.0W 47 X X X 47 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 13 16
25.0N 76.0W 15 18 X X 33 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 13 13
26.0N 77.5W X 22 3 1 26 SAVANNAH GA X X X 9 9
MUCM 214N 779W X 2 1 1 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 3 5 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 4 5 WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3
MBJT 215N 712W 48 X X X 48 KEY WEST FL X X 4 7 11
MYMM 224N 730W 48 X X X 48 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 6 9 15
MYSM 241N 745W 43 X X X 43 FT MYERS FL X X 5 10 15
MYEG 235N 758W 24 5 X X 29 VENICE FL X X 2 12 14
MYAK 241N 776W 2 19 1 1 23 TAMPA FL X X 2 12 14
MYNN 251N 775W 1 23 2 X 26 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W X 8 12 3 23 ST MARKS FL X X X 8 8
MARATHON FL X 1 7 5 13 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL X 2 11 5 18 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X 1 13 6 20 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
FT PIERCE FL X X 11 8 19 GULF 29N 85W X X X 7 7
COCOA BEACH FL X X 8 10 18 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI
D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
Hmm interesting to notice that JAX is only 2% less than places like Cocoa Beach and 3% less than Ft. Pierce. Also interesting are the bolded above. There appears to be a VERY SLIGHT chc that the storm still goes north alot.... hmmm.
**EDITED TO MAKE IT EASIER TO READ, IT LOOKED BAD EARLIER
**
