0 Z and 6Z GFS - performance so far today

[x-y-no]

Looking at the actual track so far today, the 0Z GFS pretty much nailed the track but is just a tad slow:



The 6 Z run, OTOH, is out to lunch. Way too northerly:



That's enough for me to discard the 6 Z run from consideration, but not the 0Z.

It'll be interesting to see what the 12 Z run does - I'm still a little mystified at the NW turn.

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Next waypoint I'm looking for is where she crosses 72W. Most modeld have her between 22.5N and 23N, with the UKMET near 23.5. I'm expecting about 22.3N.

[yoda]

Why are you mystified? The 0z ECMWF shows the same thing. Granted, this is the first time it has shown this, and that this may be just a flip-flop, but it will be interesting to say the least to see what the 12z ECMWF and GFS hold.

[x-y-no]

Why are you mystified? The 0z ECMWF shows the same thing. Granted, this is the first time it has shown this, and that this may be just a flip-flop, but it will be interesting to say the least to see what the 12z ECMWF and GFS hold.

I'm mystified because I don't understand why the models would think the ridge weakens that much.

I'd be delighted to be wrong, but I don't see it.