Great early AM forecast discussion from Tampa NWS office...

[WeatherNole]

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420
FXUS62 KTBW 010730
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 AM EDT WED SEP 1 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA AS FRANCES MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATES. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN
E/NE FLOW THROUGH FRI. TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES SPARKING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION...AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THEN AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR
THURS AND FRI AS FRANCES DRAWS NEARER...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
LIMITED WITH ONLY 30-40% POPS. TEMPS REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...LOOKS AS IF THE MODELS AND REALITY ARE
FINALLY CONVERGING WITH REGARD TO FRANCES. FIRST...THE REALITY.
WHILE FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE AT A HEARTY CLIP (15 KT)...FASTER
THAN MOST MODELS EARLIER SUGGESTED...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE REMNANT WEAK TROUGH IS DISSIPATING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE OTHER KEY PLAYER...A FORMER GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH NOW EDGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW COAST...IS NOT ONLY
TAKING ITS TIME SLIPPING EAST BUT APPEARS TO BE DIGGING AS WELL.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THESE PLAYERS...AND NOW ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING FRANCES TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IN 72-96H. GFS 00Z RUN...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THREE DAYS...IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO ITS 18Z RUN...PERHAPS A BIT TO THE LEFT AND A TAD
FASTER. THE NOGAPS RIPS FRANCES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM
E TO W ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN JOGS IT ALONG THE COAST
BEFORE BRIEFLY TAKING IT INLAND NEAR THE FIRST COAST. THE ETA IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS...AND THE UKMET THROUGH 72H IS CLOSE TO THE
NOGAPS. ONLY THE GFDL CONTINUES A NORTHERLY TURN...BUT HAS SHIFTED
FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN RECENT RUNS.

AS WESTERN TROUGH DIGS AND REMAINS POSITIVE...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE
MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN...AND MODELS ACTUALLY REINFORCE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHICH HELPS TO BRIEFLY BEND FRANCES BACK TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IN 24H WE SHOULD KNOW FOR CERTAIN WITH
(HOPEFULLY) ASSISTANCE FROM ADDITIONAL RAOBS.

FOR NOW...HAVE RUN A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION TO MATCH THE TPC TRACK
AND CAPPED GRIDDED WINDS AT 34 KT. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE STILL
GREAT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL FL.
THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD SUGGEST PRIMARILY A WIND AND RAIN MAKER FOR
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND N SUNCOAST...BUT A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD
AMPLIFY THE WIND (AND "BACKSIDE" SURGE) IMPACTS WHILE A SLOWER
SOLUTION WOULD AMPLIFY FRESHWATER FLOOD IMPACTS.

STILL A DAY OR SO BEFORE WE NEED TO PINPOINT...BUT A COUPLE OF THINGS
TO KEEP IN MIND: 1) THIS STORM IS MUCH LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN
CHARLEY SO GENERAL EFFECTS WILL BE FELT BY MORE FOLKS. 2) THERE IS
A STRONG HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
WIND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THIS
SEMICIRCLE OUT OF WEST CENTRAL/SW FL...BUT ANY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH
COULD SHIFT THE MAX WINDS AS WELL. AS USUAL...STAY TUNED.

AFTER FRANCES PASSES...SW FLOW OF VERY TROPICAL AIR SHOULD ENSURE
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON LABOR DAY...WITH A GRADUAL DRYING AS
UPPER RIDGE TAKES OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/NE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LIGHT FLOW TODAY WILL ALLOW AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE STARTING THURS AS HURRICANE FRANCES MOVES CLOSER TO THE
REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 91 76 / 50 30 30 20
FMY 92 74 92 75 / 60 30 30 20
GIF 93 75 92 74 / 50 30 30 20
SRQ 91 74 91 75 / 50 30 30 20
BKV 91 72 91 72 / 50 30 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
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