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Wx Update, Eastern Caribbean, WedSep1, 8am
N Coast of DominicanRepublic E of Luperon is currently being impacted by the edge of CDO, with wind gusts to Hurricane Force possible in some of the squalls. This may impact Luperon shortly, and the bad weather will continue all day. CDO is 60 mi E of Provo, T&C, and weather should deteriorate rapidly there before Noon, with sustained Hurricane Force winds this afternoon, backing from N to NW, W, SW, S. Last of the squall bands is near the MonaPassage, and PuertoRico looking better.
There is not much going on other than Frances. Caribbean Basin is quiet with light winds varying btwn E-S. Winds this week in Eastern Caribbean will be more SE than normal generally 10-12 kts, 10-15 at times. A few showers later in the week, but not significant, and no organization. Sea states in the Eastern Caribbean 3-5' decreasing some this week.
Next Tropical system should form W of CapeVerdeIslands and could track close to the NE Caribbean late next week
Hurricane Frances continues to track in the general direction of the Bahamas, and continues to:
Lie to the left of the forecast track
Move more quickly than anticipated
Move in a more Westerly direction than anticipated
Strengthen gradually
At 5am, Frances was located near 21.2N / 68.5W, movement 285T@15 kts, max sustained winds 120 kts, or 140 mph, with gusts to 145 kts or 165 mph.
During the past "12 / 24" hours, Frances has moved 0.6 / 0.7 deg N Lat, while moving 3.1 / 2.6 deg W Lon. Max winds increased about 15 / 0 kts, and minimum central pressure fell by 11 / 3 mb. Indicated movement 24 hrs ago was 280@13 kts, 12 hrs ago 280@15 kts, now 285@15 kts.
A gradual decrease in forward speed and a shift more towards the WNW is expected during the next 24 hrs, due to a slight weakening of the upper-level RIDGE. The question is when this will happen, and how significant the turn will be. The NOAA / NHC forecast track seems to assume a fairly dramatic shift to the NW will happen soon, taking the center of Frances well N of the Bahamas Islands until she approaches N Eluthera and passes over the S Abacos, and intersecting the FL Coast near 27.5N or about Melbourne.
My thinking is this...In each advisory, Frances is just slightly left of her forecast position. Forward speed continues to be slightly faster than predicted, and we have not yet seen much of a turn to the NW. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to the turn. I think the turn and the slow-down will happen, and maybe to a greater extent, but that it will occur somewhat later in the forecast periods.
Therefore, my forecast is for the center of Frances to pass much closer to the Islands of the Bahamas...with the center of the eye 40 mi N of Provo, T&C near sunset today; 20 mi N of Mayaguana midnight; Near SanSalvador / Rum / Conception by mid-morning Thu2; Near CatIsland mid-day Thu2; Near Eluthera Thu2 evening; slowing-down considerably near Nassau Thu2 overnite; Near Berrys Fri3; Near WestEnd Fri3 evening, and turning more to the NNW, near CapeCanaveral Sat4 afternoon or evening.
Worst conditions near the center and within 50 mi N of center...in this area seas could be 40-50' or even 60', and storm surge, depending on local geography, could be as high as 20-25'. Fortunately most Bahamas Islands are small, preventing the surge from piling-up as it would against a larger land mass. Because of local geography and your location relative to the center of Frances, sea state and surge will vary greatly from place to place.
Again, the official track is flatter than mine...keeping Frances N of the Bahamas, across Abaco and hitting FL S of CapeCanaveral, near Melbourne.
A note about the max winds...the strongest sustained winds were found by the reconnaisance aircraft to lie not in the inner eye wall, but in one of the concentric rings lying farther from the center. The most intense convection also lies up to 100 mi from the center in all directions, particularly to the S. As such, even a near-miss, within 100 miles of your location, will place you well into sustained Hurricane Force winds. Depending on which way you slice the system, CDO is between 275 and 350 mi across (120 mi to 180 mi radius from the center), and sustained Hurricane Force winds are likely in that area. CDO coverage was about 200-240 mi across 36 hours ago, so Frances continues to grow larger in geographical coverage.
APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/