Joe B discussion

[ColdWaterConch]

I took one climatology course at Penn State...I could have written the same thing....

[storm4u]

he didnt write that the other experts at accuweather did thats from the hurricane section i read that this morning!!! Jb could be saying somthing very different to that!!

[Thunder44]

Here is what Joe B. says

Dangerous, category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 8 AM EDT, is centered at 21.4 north, 69.1 west, or about 130 miles east of Grand Turk Island; 780 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances is moving toward the west- northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure is 937 millibars (27.67 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas; a hurricane watch is in effect for the central Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic.
Frances is being steered by the ridge, or high to the north. The strength of the ridge, and where the center, or axis of the ridge is located, as the hurricane approaches the U.S., will be critical in determining where this dangerous storm makes landfall. Residents from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina need to monitor the progress of Frances, and make preparations. Historically, if you look back at the major hurricanes that have come across the Atlantic, just north of Puerto Rico, they have ended up making landfall in south Florida. On the other hand, the way the weather map, and specifically, the high is expected to look 3 days down the road says that Georgia and the Carolinas need to be concerned, as far as a landfall.


I hope that helps

This is not what JB says. This is from the Accuweather free site.

[Aquawind]

Ok Then..We got that cleared up.

[Coastal-GA]

I watched the Bastardi video, just out this morning, and he drew a line from st. simons to Charleston very quickly, saying he's thinking that landfall will occur there.

Hope not.

[hurricanedude]

thats accuwx's writeup not JB......the mods in here have requested...and for good reason not to post JB'S paid services topics in here...so just go to accwx.com and read the free stuff...JB column cannot be posted here

[LowMug]

Here is what Joe B. says

Dangerous, category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 8 AM EDT, is centered at 21.4 north, 69.1 west, or about 130 miles east of Grand Turk Island; 780 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances is moving toward the west- northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure is 937 millibars (27.67 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas; a hurricane watch is in effect for the central Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic.
Frances is being steered by the ridge, or high to the north. The strength of the ridge, and where the center, or axis of the ridge is located, as the hurricane approaches the U.S., will be critical in determining where this dangerous storm makes landfall. Residents from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina need to monitor the progress of Frances, and make preparations. Historically, if you look back at the major hurricanes that have come across the Atlantic, just north of Puerto Rico, they have ended up making landfall in south Florida. On the other hand, the way the weather map, and specifically, the high is expected to look 3 days down the road says that Georgia and the Carolinas need to be concerned, as far as a landfall.


I hope that helps

This is not what JB says. This is from the Accuweather free site.

Thunder ... why are you always trying to bust my b@lls ... that was from the premium site ... damn you are bugging me dude ... if that is not what he says than why don't you post what the %*&% he has to say and stop being a ....

[Thunder44]

Here is what Joe B. says

Dangerous, category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 8 AM EDT, is centered at 21.4 north, 69.1 west, or about 130 miles east of Grand Turk Island; 780 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances is moving toward the west- northwest at 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 140 mph. The central pressure is 937 millibars (27.67 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas; a hurricane watch is in effect for the central Bahamas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the north coast of the Dominican Republic.
Frances is being steered by the ridge, or high to the north. The strength of the ridge, and where the center, or axis of the ridge is located, as the hurricane approaches the U.S., will be critical in determining where this dangerous storm makes landfall. Residents from the Florida Keys to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina need to monitor the progress of Frances, and make preparations. Historically, if you look back at the major hurricanes that have come across the Atlantic, just north of Puerto Rico, they have ended up making landfall in south Florida. On the other hand, the way the weather map, and specifically, the high is expected to look 3 days down the road says that Georgia and the Carolinas need to be concerned, as far as a landfall.


I hope that helps

This is not what JB says. This is from the Accuweather free site.

Thunder ... why are you always trying to bust my b@lls ... that was from the premium site ... damn you are bugging me dude ... if that is not what he says than why don't you post what the %*&% he has to say and stop being a ....

Excuse me, I'm not always trying to "bust your balls" and I have nothing against you. I'm correcting what you claim here, and so have others, and it's not my fault you are wrong. I'm not treating you any differently than anyone else on this board. I can't post here what he says because this site won't let me, and I'm not going too.

[Three Blind Mice]

Just as the trend is your friend......

The met with the hot hand is JB!!! Gaston was the call of the year!!!!

[LowMug]

well I stand corrected on the JB issue (not on the ERC issue a couple of days ago)...however that was shown at the premium site whether or not he stated it...who knows...

Why can JB's statements not be posted here or summarized in a sense...he is a professional met...does his site not allow it or is it the administrators at storm2k who don't want his statements in here?

[caneman]

Just as the trend is your friend......

The met with the hot hand is JB!!! Gaston was the call of the year!!!!

I'm sorry but that was hardly rocket science. He missed charley. Lets see how he does with Frances.

[Guest]

I dont pay. In fact I got the link here about a half a yr ago. I am not stealing. In fact all I do is click.

[Thunder44]

well I stand corrected on the JB issue (not on the ERC issue a couple of days ago)...however that was shown at the premium site whether or not he stated it...who knows...

Why can JB's statements not be posted here or summarized in a sense...he is a professional met...does his site not allow it or is it the administrators at storm2k who don't want his statements in here?

I've emailed JB about what is said on the premium site. He's told me he has nothing to do with it.

It kind of both ways, that his company doesn't want his column being posted anywhere else, and storm2k has agreed to delete posts that do contain that.

[ColdWaterConch]

Regardless, I find the accuweather site to be like USA Today...what I refer to as "brain candy"... for those with short attention spans and for people who like lots of color.

[Anonymous]

Just as the trend is your friend......

The met with the hot hand is JB!!! Gaston was the call of the year!!!!

..I don't get to read JB anymore, & I always enjoyed his long drawn out reasoning when I did read it. Interesting stuff,.
But I just don't understand how Gaston was the call of the year. Even the weekend bimbo that works pt for the local TV channel here to supplement her Hooters income mentioned that the lingering trough could form into something tropical as it hangs out off the coast.
DUH,... isn't that like basic High school meterology when you study the tropical weather? Whats the big deal? Kind of like saying it could snow in Jan in La Crosse, WI... a no brainer.
Maybe I am missing something more, but a tropical storm forming off the SE coast in late August doesn't seem like the mega money jackpot.

~ Mike

[Steve]

Gaston was the call of the year because he pegged it over a week prior based on pattern recognition (brought us Hermine as well). It was a pattern that one would look to for something out of nothing. Great call IMHO. What he's been particularly acute with this year, if not so much tracks, has been the setup for a historic landfalling season intensity wise. He's also has driven home the point that most storms would be intensifying this year near landfall rather than the other way around. However, he does not see this if his ideas are correct with Frances because of the shadow left from Gaston (= upwelling, cooler waters, etc.).

His whole premise on Frances is based on the synoptic setup. He has, however, acknowledged that he is an outlier in his track.

>>His comments on Frances have been unusually long-winded incomprehensible gibberish without containing an actual forecast, even by his standards, which says a lot.

Sounds vaguely familiar, eh? You still haven't responded to your overt criticism of his company concerning Charlie when your only hint at your ideas were from the same day were WORSE. Still LMAO.

Nonetheless, I think you have a point. He seems to be unusually stubborn in his end-game for Frances. I called Southern NC before he put out his Outer Banks or farther up the coast landfall prediction last Friday. His current prediction also assumes the storm will run up east of the Bahamas for the most part. If so, I feel bad for those of you in South Carolina. This has kind of been yours and Florida's year so far.

Steve

[Novacane]

First time post after a year or two of lurking.

Steve is right on with his characterization of JB (and his point about Derecho). In fact, DT even gave Bastardi his props on Gaston.

Bastari has been consistent and quite clear that his ideas about a Carolinas landfall, and equally clear that he doesn't rule out the possibility of a SoFla landfall. He's also said he'll take his lumps tomorrow if the data comes out against the position he's staked out.

No serious wx met is saying US landfall with absolute certainty at this point. Just like with Charley, a 100 mile course change --shoot, even a 50 mile course change -- can potentially make a huge difference on landfall location. Floyd a couple of years ago made a right turn just off the FL coast. The scenario on who was affected would have been a whole lot different if it had made the turn 75 miles farther west.

Not saying Frances will pull a Floyd -- that was just an example. I'd be paying real close attention to this whether I lived in Key West or Nag's Head, and I'm sure any responsible met on this board or elsewhere is saying the same thing.

I find all the JB bashing on this board pretty humorous. Let's hear it for all the Monday morning quarterbacks!

To paraphrase GB Shaw, Those who can, do.
Those who can't, teach. Those who can't do either sit back and criticize.

[frankthetank]

MPH101~

since i live in LACROSSE, WI ... With recent winters fresh in my mind, i wouldn't doubt a snowless janurary.....its been pathetic recently.... Joe B doesn't deserve to be bashed....He has his reasons and i can almost guarantee every waking hour of his life is spent thinking about the "Long Ranger"...GO JOE B! (i'm calling West Palm Beach)

[Stormsfury]

well I stand corrected on the JB issue (not on the ERC issue a couple of days ago)...however that was shown at the premium site whether or not he stated it...who knows...

Why can JB's statements not be posted here or summarized in a sense...he is a professional met...does his site not allow it or is it the administrators at storm2k who don't want his statements in here?

It's called "copyright infringement" ... and cannot be posted ... end of story.

[Steve]

Thanks Novacane. I don't mean to come off as a pr*** but it just gets old. I don't have a problem with anyone saying Joe was wrong when he was. He usually admits it himself. But when he or anyone is mischaracterized, someone with the real story should step in. It's only fair. As for Derecho, he posts some great stuff. If he wasn't on such a crusade (or at least seeming to be), he'd be a top 5 poster. JMO

Steve