Gulf

[dwinpcola]

What does the room here think of the storm getting into the Gulf ? If it does get into the Gulf , where might it go ?


thanks

dw

[GulfHills]

I'm wondering the same thing.

[rtd2]

You will find several of us who think S.Fla then into GOMEX where after that?....I'M not tellin!..... lol TOO far out and depends where it comes into gulf! one problem at a time!

[dwinpcola]

What has concerned me has been the speed and the westward movement. I see it coming across florida and into the gulf but where it does cross is important. I was just looking for some insight from the group here.

dw

[alicia-w]

the UKMET does ugly things, like put it into our area....

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

[inotherwords]

This scares me too. If the storm ends up tracking westward into Miami area, would it continue across the state through us south of Tampa Bay and into the GOM, or would it go up the coast? I'm not clear on this and it's scaring me.

It really seems by the time we all know what's going on with this storm, evacuation will be difficult, especially for those people in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties.

[dwinpcola]

Where can I get a good look at the FSU model used for storms ?
Also , what is the best models being used now for this storm

dw

[bfez1]

If it does enter the GOM, it will then probably go N into the panhandle of FL.

[goodlife]

ugh..I agree
The UKMET does do ugly things....
Keep that storm OUT Of the gul!!

[dwinpcola]

i am in the pensacola area and have seen some models bringing the storm into this area and into new orleans, any thoughts?

dw

[alicia-w]

well its a heckuva way to extend an already 4 day weekend. we were wanting to go to our house in the Smokies this fall. Looks like we have a chance(albeit a small one) to do it sooner than later.

I know we just increased our insurance coverage. Good thing I guess. And we are SO trying to move back to SE AZ. This storm may be the final catalyst for us.

Can anyone fill us in more on the increased shark activity here and what that might mean?

[iluvseashore]

still wondering about the nature coast myself. I know she is massive but I am not quite sure what to expect here.

[rtd2]

If it does get in the GOMEX it will depend on where HP is as to where it will turn and ride up the HP's back side

[Air Force Met]

Seems like most of the models are seeing a building ridge after 96 hours or so that should prevent a landfall north of Fl. A lot of them bend it back to the WNW...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html

[vbhoutex]

It is really too far out to tell. However, one thing EVERYONE NEEDS TO KEEP IN MIND is that Frances is a VERY LARGE hurricane with MONSTROUS winds. At its widest point the peninsula of Florida is at most 175 miles wide which is less than 1/2 the width of the tropical storm force winds in Frances. In other words most of Florida will be affected in some way by Hurricane Frances if she stays her current and progged course.

In answer to the actual question, it really is too early to tell with any certainty what will happen, but I think a crossing into the GOM is possible, not probable, and if it happens I would expect the P'cola area to be about as far West as she might get. I do have an interest in this as my Mother lives in Niceville, to the East of Pensacola. I will be advising her on evac plans no later than tomorrow night depending on Frances' track at that time. Everyone along the N GOM coast from NO East really needs to be keeping a close eye on Frances and ANYONE ALONG ANY COAST SHOULD ALREADY HAVE PLANS IN PLACE IF EVACUATIONS ARE REQUIRED AND SHOULD HAVE A HURRICANE KIT ALREADY STOCKED!!

[dhweather]

This goes back to the fundaments.

If you live in an area that is affected by tropical
weather, you should have plans in place. You
should have reviewed your supplies and plans
in June.

I know, it's hard to do that, but it is a risk we accept
by living in coastal areas.

We don't know what will happen after Florida
landfall. I tend to believe it will re-emerge into
the Gulf and go no further West than NOLA.
But that's too far out to say, don't look past 72 hours with the models.

[Portastorm]

So why not Texas? Someone tell me why (using synoptic reasoning) Frances WILL NOT threaten the Western GOM.

I realize no one has said this ... but what the heck ... I see this storm, see how she continues to stay south of predicted locations by NHC and I can't stop thinking about Gilbert. Air Force Met mentioned it the other day.

I dunno, if she hits south Florida and moves into the eastern GOM, I say all bets are off.

[dwinpcola]

Thank you all . If anyone can tell me where to get the FSU model that would be great. Time will tell if Florida gets hit one or two times. To all good luck

dw