elongated cloud pattern forecasting turn more NW?

[Weatherboy1]

Just curious, but I wonder if the elongated shape of the storm this morning is fortelling a shift more to the NW? You can see that the cloud shield is oriented more N-S ... a day ago, it had more of a "buzzsaw" shape. Also, the 12Z hurricane models are showing more of a bend to the N, as did the latest Euro (mentioned elsewhere on this board). These are minor things, and the models have flip-flopped quite a bit. So I am by no means suggesting anyone let their guard down. But this could lead to a shift of the path further north. We'll see.

[alicia-w]

I just read this "general forecasting rule" that says:

Hurricanes which have a satellite picture that show elongated mass to one side often turn in the direction or alignment of the Clouds mass within 24 hr. In other words…. If satellite pictures show the mass of a westward traveling tropical cyclone elongated to the NW then the Hurricane is likely (8 times out of 10) to turn that way.

I have no idea how accurate the statement or if the person who made it is a crackpot or not. Just throwing it out there.

[Burn1]

I just mentioned the jog to the NW and I also noticed the elongation.....
Still looking for that turn away from SFL

[Dmetal81]

Ive heard things like that too. When they start to "point" its a way to forecast the direction they are going to go.

[rtd2]

Negative!... shes making her OWN path and at that foward speed it obvious shes riding the bottom side of the ridge that has continued to build back to the west! This is a S.fla storm Heck I might go with a keys store if this west Mvt. keeps up!

[Suncat]

I also saw the elongation this morning on the visible sat. Looks to be on the NNW side. Glad others have seen this 'cause I thought this was just my imagination.

[Guest]

Frances is experiencing eyewall replacement & in doing so its in a reorganization phase & the higher level cirus clouds have become disorganized.There is no forecast of a turn out here & she is continuing to move W/NW.If you check the WV you can see the upper level cloud shield dtill moving west.

[Stormcenter]

Frances is "still" moving wnw nothing has changed.

[ericinmia]

Frances is "still" moving wnw nothing has changed.

It is changing its eyewall dynamics... that is causing its outflow to be disrupted...

For now, it is still south of a rapiddly growing high...
-Eric

[LilNoles2004]

I just checked out the latest IR and it was only a wobble to the NW... it's since went back to a 'slightly' north of due west motion...

[nccoastalgirl]

In NC, we follow a general rule for hurricanes.....follow the bow. It works here most of the time. But, whatever. I think this will be an unreliable and ever-changing long-range forecast until this storm gets to the Bahamas. BUT, that doesn't mean I don't think people in Florida should be getting ready NOW. Because they most definitely should. I just think that the NHC should be telling the same thing to people in GA, since this is a holiday weekend and all.