8 am advisory changes....

[Wannabewxman79]

I don't know if anyone has seen the 8 am update but the local mets just gave it and they said it is moving NW at 17. I had noticed a little more northward movement but I didn't think it was that much.

[Wannabewxman79]

Just of note, they may have messed up but I just thought I would passed it along just incase.

[das8929]

That is definitely a mess up. Its WNW at 16.

[Air Force Met]

Still WNW at 16 according to the advisory.

[Innotech]

it moving due west for three frames now. total motion is just west of northwest still.

[Wannabewxman79]

Yeah I just got the advisory, it moved .2 north and .6 west. Sorry about that, they just messed up for some reason

[Windtalker]

4 frames now...alittle north of west

[stormraiser]

My advisory said WNW at 16

[x-y-no]

So she's going to cross 70W at about 21.7N ...

That's .7 degrees south of where the model consensus had her yesterday evening, 1.7 degrees south of where the UKMET had her.

[Tip]

The latest pressure tendency map shows a rapid increase in pressure just to the north of Frances.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_ptnd.gif

[Windsong]

what does this mean?

[ColinD]

So she's going to cross 70W at about 21.7N ...

This is exactly where a bit of a northward bend is expected so it will be a confirmation or not of that.

[Aquawind]

So she's going to cross 70W at about 21.7N ...

That's .7 degrees south of where the model consensus had her yesterday evening, 1.7 degrees south of where the UKMET had her.

Hmmmm.. Not Good..

[RichG]

I think the track is already south of lates gfdl

[Sunprintz]

I'm just not sure what all this means.......I'm here in Ft Myers Beach, still recuperating, and rebuilding from Charley........what do I DO?????
I've reprovisioned, but just don't know at this point where to go and what to do........
Any insight would be greatly appreciated, I do value all your knowledge.

Thanks
Jo

[jlauderdal]

I think the track is already south of lates gfdl

abandon the gfdl for now...NHC has.

jlauderdal

[TLHR]

I'm just not sure what all this means.......I'm here in Ft Myers Beach, still recuperating, and rebuilding from Charley........what do I DO?????
I've reprovisioned, but just don't know at this point where to go and what to do........
Any insight would be greatly appreciated, I do value all your knowledge.

Thanks
Jo

Fort Meyers should be OK.
You will get rain.
You will get some wind.
There is a very good chance that you will be on the southwest side of the storm, which is the weakest.

If you have any roof damage, you will want to patch that up.
You will probably lose power again. So prepare for that. If you can't find flashlights and batteries, buy some glowsticks.
Find out if there are going to be any shelters open.
If you feel anxious about the storm, you can always go to a shelter.

[TLHR]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1008W5.gif

Granted, this path could change.

But as you can see, the NHC does not expect Frances to pass directly over Ft. Meyers.

[Scott_inVA]

I don't know if anyone has seen the 8 am update but the local mets just gave it and they said it is moving NW at 17. I had noticed a little more northward movement but I didn't think it was that much.

Correct. NOT true NW.

TPC also notes it is wobbling somewhat due to concentric eyewalls. If you watch a loop frame by frame it's easy to think a turn is observed where it's merely a "jog". With SLP down, winds will increase and the wobble should be visible this morning.

Scott

[rtd2]

Quote "Correct. NOT true NW.

TPC also notes it is wobbling somewhat due to concentric eyewalls. If you watch a loop frame by frame it's easy to think a turn is observed where it's merely a "jog". With SLP down, winds will increase and the wobble should be visible this morning.

Scott"


Good call Scott this storm for the last 30 hrs or so has been moving WEST with a hiccup north here and there helping in to gain a little lat. the last 30 hrs. not even a true wnw