5am -> 8am.. Track calculations...

[ericinmia]

5am intial:
21.2 North
68.5 West

8am initial:
21.4 North
69.1 West

Change in 3 hours....
0.2 North
0.6 West

Lets see after the 11am where this is going....
It appears to be trending back toward west as of now...
-Eric

[Wannabewxman79]

At 2 am it was 21.0 and 67.9 so it is still heading in the same direction it has been for some time. .2 N and .6 W.

[guanaskip]

that extrapolation--.2 N for every .6 W put's it in the Keys.(25.4 and 81)
Can one of you who looks at all the other things that make it move explain to us why it wont just keep going on roughly this same track.
what will turn or push it more north than this .2N for every .6W ratio?

[x-y-no]

Well, the theory is the ridge is weakening.

Now 2 degrees in 6 is more northerly than yesterday's average, so maybe there's something to the thory after all, I don't know.

[guanaskip]

Thanks.
In simple terms for us laymen, am I right that generally speaking with this storm the ridge blocks from the North and the trough pushes storm towards East.

[Wannabewxman79]

Well now the storm has moved a little more north on this lastest obs.

8 am
21.4 North
69.1 West

11 am
21.7
69.8

.3 and .7, could just be a jog in there somewhere but I am sure this is what the models were picking up. It was .2 and .6. Just for everyone's info.

[Lowpressure]

NHC claims 290 degrees.

[dhweather]

that increase would also imply a slight acceleration in speed?

[btsgmdad]

From the IR loop it looks to be heading for Grand Turk.

[kevin]

I believe in the NHC's motion and forecast. Tonight I'm going to stock up on the essentials.

That means mountain dew and potato chips.

back to class work...
--Kevin in Ocala Florida

[ColinD]

If they say 290 that is the best estimate. They take the degrees and minutes, convert to decimal and round to the nearest tenth so there is a little rounding error in there too.