5 AM NHC Discussion Raises Questions
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CourierPR
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5 AM NHC Discussion Raises Questions
Given the forward speed and the course heading just north of due west, how can the NHC continue to show a forecast track for Frances that centers more on Central Florida than South Florida?
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Innotech
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the Coriolis effect, couples with a weakening high pressure ridge.
The ridge is very strong, but it is also dynamic. It is not going to stay in place forever, and the new forecast is noticing a devloping weakness in its western side, which leaves a sort of tunnel through which Frances will likely go around its southwestern edge, and into Florida. At this point, the storm is still continuing West of Northwest, and a bit left of last nights tracks. It is bleieved that the trough is too elongated West to East to really affect Frances. Instead, a natural weakening and slight retreat of hte ridge is responsible for hte turn, and the coriolis effect of the Earths rotation is also a factor. the storm is now just doing what it was supposed to a long itme before. that is to recurve NW, N, and then NE and head out to sea. however, its far too close to land and past the safe recurve zone, and so will impact florida at osme point.
The ridge is very strong, but it is also dynamic. It is not going to stay in place forever, and the new forecast is noticing a devloping weakness in its western side, which leaves a sort of tunnel through which Frances will likely go around its southwestern edge, and into Florida. At this point, the storm is still continuing West of Northwest, and a bit left of last nights tracks. It is bleieved that the trough is too elongated West to East to really affect Frances. Instead, a natural weakening and slight retreat of hte ridge is responsible for hte turn, and the coriolis effect of the Earths rotation is also a factor. the storm is now just doing what it was supposed to a long itme before. that is to recurve NW, N, and then NE and head out to sea. however, its far too close to land and past the safe recurve zone, and so will impact florida at osme point.
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hurricane_lover
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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FloridaDiver
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hurricane_lover wrote:yes, as I am in Miami. But this is based on my data.
Care to share said data? I can't find a thing except one of the models that the NHC has said at the 5AM discusion is completely off....
Ahhh I remmeber you mentioned that 90/10 rule about always recurve, yes recurve she will but over Florida.
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