The Bullseye. ~ West Palm +/- 250 miles

[ColinD]

Strike probabilities through 2am Saturday.

Cedar Key Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 11% 11%
Charleston Sc < 1% < 1% < 1% 6% 6%
Cocoa Beach Fl < 1% < 1% 3% 14% 17%
Daytona Beach Fl < 1% < 1% 1% 14% 15%
Ft Myers Fl < 1% < 1% 2% 12% 14%
Ft Pierce Fl < 1% < 1% 7% 11% 18%
Jacksonville Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 12% 12%
Key West Fl < 1% < 1% 2% 8% 10%
Marathon Fl < 1% < 1% 4% 8% 12%
Marco Island Fl < 1% < 1% 3% 11% 14%
Miami Fl < 1% < 1% 9% 8% 17
Panama City Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 4%
Savannah Ga < 1% < 1% < 1% 8% 8%
St Marks Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 7% 7%
Tampa Fl < 1% < 1% < 1% 13% 13%
Venice Fl < 1% < 1% 1% 12% 13%
W Palm Beach Fl < 1% < 1% 9% 10% 19%
Wilmington Nc < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 2%

(Edit: Official National Hurricane Center product)

[janswizard]

Colin, how do you read these?

[wsquared77]

Are these your predictions?

[ColinD]

Colin, how do you read these?

These the probabilities of the center passing within 65 nautical miles (about 75 miles) of particular cities and points within a particular time frame. The time frames are

Now - 2am Th
2am Thu - 2pm Thu
2pm Thu - 2am Fri
2am Fri - 2am Sat
Now - 2am Sat

So if you look at the last line the probability of the center being within 75 miles of the following cities between now and 2am Sat. looks like this:

Cedar Key Fl 11%
Charleston Sc 6%
Cocoa Beach Fl 17%
Daytona Beach Fl 15%
Ft Myers Fl 14%
Ft Pierce Fl 18%
Jacksonville Fl 12%
Key West Fl 10%
Marathon Fl 12%
Marco Island Fl 14%
Miami Fl 17%
Panama City Fl 4%
Savannah Ga 8%
St Marks Fl 7%
Tampa Fl 13%
Venice Fl 13%
W Palm Beach 19%
Wilmington Nc 2%

[ColinD]

Are these your predictions?

No, these are from the National Hurricane Center.

[27-80]

here's the official Hurricane Center advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0832.shtml?

These are the probabilities for mostly 12 hour periods in which the center of Frances will pass within 65 nautical miles of these locations.

[janswizard]

So if I understand this, chances are 17% that landfall could be both Miami or Ft Pierce?

[Anonymous]

These are the precentage chances of the eye coming within 65 nautical miles from the cities. Each number goes out 24 hrs. With the last number being the total chance of the storm passing that point (city) within 72 hours -forecast period. They are issued by the NHC.

Of course the higher the total number the more likely the center of the storm is predicted to move near. These numbers change with all new forecast and its important to watch if the precentage increases towards your point of interest.

We are seeing W. Palm as the current closest landfall point, however these numbers are trending towards a Florida landfall.

Of special note is the fact to notice that Gulf locations are trending up (St. Marks Florida, Cedar Key, Marco Island)

Mike

[ColinD]

So if I understand this, chances are 17% that landfall could be both Miami or Ft Pierce?

It REALLY means that there is a 17% chance the center will be within 65 nautical miles of Miami in that time frame. Doesn't particularly refer to a landfall. The eye could go by a location within 65 nm offshore and not landfall there. A system could also slow down and not make it to a particular location in the time frame and still hit there later. It's a decent way to estimate the threat to an area

[janswizard]

Considering I'm 60 miles north of West Palm just a tad south of Fort Pierce, things aren't looking too good from what I'm seeing. My family keeps pooh-poohing me when I say we could potentially be in danger and none of them are even thinking about taking precautions. Even QVC (where I work) isn't taking this seriously and came out yesterday with a bulletin that the business will remain open and we are expected to be there.

[ColinD]

So if I understand this, chances are 17% that landfall could be both Miami or Ft Pierce?

The odds of having the storm cut across and go by you over there are getting higher, yes. Keep watching. As MPH101 just said, note the increase on the Gulf locations as Frances moves closer.

[ColinD]

Considering I'm 60 miles north of West Palm just a tad south of Fort Pierce, things aren't looking too good from what I'm seeing. My family keeps pooh-poohing me when I say we could potentially be in danger and none of them are even thinking about taking precautions. Even QVC (where I work) isn't taking this seriously and came out yesterday with a bulletin that the business will remain open and we are expected to be there.

I guess a funny sort of way to look at it might be "there is an x% chance my power will go out".

I'm going to get my final supplies this morning.

[ColinD]

More like Melbourne. This map has good resolution.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html