Bad News...Probably Not Missing FL

[MWatkins]

The GFS model has apparently broken it's crack habit from 0Z last night and is now presenting a more reasonable solution in terms of the hurricane's interation with the 500MB ridge.

Of course...the European model continues to hollar for a SFL landfall...now the 0Z NOGAPS echos that...and the 0Z GFS is slower and a little to the north of that.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

The UKMET is not out as of press time...but chances of it being to the right of the rest of the guidance are low.

Recon will be in to check soon...but the concern for SFL...in my opinion...has gone up significantly this evening. Also...it appears the GFDL has not broken it's crack dependancy based on the 00Z run.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0409010529

SJU radar shows a mostly westward moving vortex through the eclipse...already to the left of the GFDL guidance.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

MW

[ericinmia]

All good points as always mike!

South Fla, the keys to west palm need to really monitor this storm properlly, and if you plan on leaving:

LEAVE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...
That means you must have all your preparations completed when the order is given. So start tonight, tomorrow... this storm is coming awfully quickly.
-Eric

[mobilebay]

MIke I just said in another post that it (GFDL) was on crack and will be discounted(again). The Models are starting to come together. You think those NOAA missions where corrupting model runs?

[btangy]

00Z UKMET

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?M ... c&VEC=none

Looks slightly north of GFS guidance, unless it too turns Frances due west before landfall.

[Air Force Met]

MIke I just said in another post that it (GFDL) was on crack and will be discounted(again). The Models are starting to come together. You think those NOAA missions where corrupting model runs?

Yes...Max Mayfield said the GIV data from last night had some bad dropsondes that corrupted the models. Apparently...it was pretty bad. All the models went north...and once the data was out of the system...all the tracks went back west.

[MSRobi911]

OK Mike,

What about the Gulf? I know its still way out, but.......I saw where someone said the front coming from the Rockies was already somewhere else, I am not that knowledgable about these things. But I have been thru quite a few storms in my years, which will be another one tomorrow. Had Elena on my 30th Birthday, what a present!!! Frederic on my Anniversary and we won't even talk about Georges...he left me a great big present of 2 feet of water in my house and about 5 feet according to the grass line outside. Thank goodness for Plywood that was screwed into the brick walls around the windows or it would have broken thru them, they go all the way to the floor....

Just your best guesstimate please on the Gulf.

Thanks and I missed you on the radio by just a few tonight, the time difference got me.

[MWatkins]

MIke I just said in another post that it (GFDL) was on crack and will be discounted(again). The Models are starting to come together. You think those NOAA missions where corrupting model runs?

It's possible. They may have thrown the model a curveball when it was expecting the heater.

The GFDL continues to fail in terms of resolving the mean steering flow...especially after 72 hours. The globals are quickly surpassing the elite hurricane model IMHO.

MW

[mobilebay]

MIke I just said in another post that it (GFDL) was on crack and will be discounted(again). The Models are starting to come together. You think those NOAA missions where corrupting model runs?

Yes...Max Mayfield said the GIV data from last night had some bad dropsondes that corrupted the models. Apparently...it was pretty bad. All the models went north...and once the data was out of the system...all the tracks went back west.

Thanks Air Force Met. Once again your a Lifesaver. I think the NHC track will be shifted further south at 5AM EDT.

[Pebbles]

Thanks for keeping us updated on the Models and keep up the great work!

[MWatkins]

OK Mike,

What about the Gulf? I know its still way out, but.......I saw where someone said the front coming from the Rockies was already somewhere else, I am not that knowledgable about these things. But I have been thru quite a few storms in my years, which will be another one tomorrow. Had Elena on my 30th Birthday, what a present!!! Frederic on my Anniversary and we won't even talk about Georges...he left me a great big present of 2 feet of water in my house and about 5 feet according to the grass line outside. Thank goodness for Plywood that was screwed into the brick walls around the windows or it would have broken thru them, they go all the way to the floor....

Just your best guesstimate please on the Gulf.

Thanks and I missed you on the radio by just a few tonight, the time difference got me.

My best guesstimate is that the system should stay to your east regardless of the short/middle term changes in track. If this hurricane cuts through the FL straights and misses FL all togehter...then you may have to worry more. But...I don't think that is going to happen.

MW

[mobilebay]

OK Mike,

What about the Gulf? I know its still way out, but.......I saw where someone said the front coming from the Rockies was already somewhere else, I am not that knowledgable about these things. But I have been thru quite a few storms in my years, which will be another one tomorrow. Had Elena on my 30th Birthday, what a present!!! Frederic on my Anniversary and we won't even talk about Georges...he left me a great big present of 2 feet of water in my house and about 5 feet according to the grass line outside. Thank goodness for Plywood that was screwed into the brick walls around the windows or it would have broken thru them, they go all the way to the floor....

Just your best guesstimate please on the Gulf.

Thanks and I missed you on the radio by just a few tonight, the time difference got me.

My best guesstimate is that the system should stay to your east regardless of the short/middle term changes in track. If this hurricane cuts through the FL straights and misses FL all togehter...then you may have to worry more. But...I don't think that is going to happen.

MW

What if that trough was delayed agian by the GFS? I Think A landfall on the Florida Panhandle east of Pensacola is very Possible.

[MSRobi911]

Thanks and my prayers are with you and all residents of Florida. I have an elderly Aunt and Uncle that live on Merritt Island and am worried sick about them and a pregnant niece that is in Jacksonville, due in a couple of weeks. Know what happens to pregnant women with the pressure drops, so do the babies....

Thanks again!

[dixiebreeze]

Bump to the top

[MWatkins]

UKMET guidance IS right of just about everybody else except the GFDL...but the trend is a tad west from 12z.

The models are indeed converging...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

[mobilebay]

UKMET guidance IS right of just about everybody else except the GFDL...but the trend is a tad west from 12z.

The models are indeed converging...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

Mike I think the world of you but that is WAY left of the other run, way over here at MObile.

[MWatkins]

UKMET guidance IS right of just about everybody else except the GFDL...but the trend is a tad west from 12z.

The models are indeed converging...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

Mike I think the world of you but that is WAY left of the other run, way over here at MObile.

Sorry...you're right...thinking in terms of the first landfall and not the second one.

MW

[mobilebay]

UKMET guidance IS right of just about everybody else except the GFDL...but the trend is a tad west from 12z.

The models are indeed converging...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

MW

Mike I think the world of you but that is WAY left of the other run, way over here at MObile.

Sorry...you're right...thinking in terms of the first landfall and not the second one.

MW

Don't worry Mike you have alot on your mind now. Also, as I stated about you and Derek earlier... You both have forgotten more about the Tropics than I'll ever know... Please keep us updated...Not to mentioned you called this when it was still over Africa(that it was going to develop).