I don't like to see this

[wlfpack81]

Well Orlando is located at 28.5n81.4w. If this 11pm track verified Frances would be at 28n81w with 115mph winds in 96hrs. So basically it wouldn't be pretty for Orlando at all!!! You'd be roughly 50miles nw of the center of the storm so you'd be on the outer fringes of the eye wall. So hurricane force winds would be felt definitely. How strong of hurricane force I'm not sure. Right now 74+mph winds instead out 70 miles so assuming it'd have the same wind field maybe 80-85mph winds or so? Again that's just sort of a gustimation. If I were able to find out how far the 115mph winds extended out I could probably extrapolate and give a better idea of what the winds could be if this track verified.

But again that's only if this track verifies and I'm sure it'll change some. How much we'll all have to wait and see.

[Dean4Storms]

Been noticing that. Derek and I talked earlier about the ridge that seems to be building to the NNW of Frances. You can see it on the WV loop. The fact that Frances is still east of the ridge led me to believe the WNW track would flatten some...but I didn't expect a due west. I know it is probably a jog...but it matches what the WV loop shows. You can see the ridge near 30/70 and how it is building.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It does appear so AFMet, you can easily see it eroding WV and seems to be expanding west and north.