Eeeeek? 1947?

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/hurricanes/1947.gif Hope this doesn't happen! Can't say that I think that it will, but, history is always interesting. And, personally, I think the ridge is building North of this system right now and I just don't see any weakness right now....

[Sean in New Orleans]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at194704.asp

[BayouVenteux]

http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/hurricanes/1947.gif Hope this doesn't happen! Can't say that I think that it will, but, history is always interesting. And, personally, I think the ridge is building North of this system right now and I just don't see any weakness right now....

Yes, Sean, that track popped into my memory bank as well a few days ago, but I'm eeling pretty good ATTM about the central Gulf Coast's future with regard to Frances since the local BTR/NO NWS discussions seem fairly optimistic with regard to a frontal passage by the end of the weekend that will act as a shield against any westward movement to the extent of the '47 storm or a Betsy-type track.

My only caveat is that the progression of the trough in the west is getting overplayed by the GFS and we end up with no front this far south 5 days from now...a fairly common occurence in late August and early September. We've kind of become used to these troughs and cool fronts this summer...but a stall well off to the NW would be more the norm.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The 1947 hurricane hooked up with a front around the Red River in NW Louisiana. BTW--it was after this storm that Orleans and Jefferson Parishes in SE Louisiana decided to build levees.

[EDR1222]

Is that the storm that I hear about that was really large. I am not sure if it is the one I am thinking of or not, but one of them may years ago was suppose to have delivered hurricane force winds from a Melbourne-Sarasota line all the way down to the Miami area or something like that.

[KeyLargoDave]

Sean, not sure what you meant about building after the storm. There were levees in Orleans parish way before the '40s. They dynamited the levee below New Orleans in the 1927 flood (at Carnarvon).

[LAwxrgal]

Double YUK!

(wish they had a vomit icon)

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sean, not sure what you meant about building after the storm. There were levees in Orleans parish way before the '40s. They dynamited the levee below New Orleans in the 1927 flood (at Carnarvon).

There were some levees, but, this is when they decided to do a major expansion of the levees and increase the elevation of them. After Betsy, in 1965 is when the plan to completely encase the metro area with the present levee system (that is still under construction, but, almost complete) was made.

[BayouVenteux]

Sean, not sure what you meant about building after the storm. There were levees in Orleans parish way before the '40s. They dynamited the levee below New Orleans in the 1927 flood (at Carnarvon).

The levees you're referring to are the Mississippi River levees, while the ones Sean is referring to are the Hurricane Protection levees, which were started after the '47 storm, and greatly expanded following Betsy in '65.

FWIW, a brief history of the storm's landfall in LA from the Lake Charles NWS site:
"September 19th, 1947: Hurricane force winds first reached the Mississippi and Louisiana shores at 6 a.m. and New Orleans at 8 a.m.. Gusts to 125 m.p.h. were estimated at Moisant International Airport (highest gust measured was 112 m.p.h.) and the pressure fell to 28.57". The map to the left shows the storm making landfall at 6:30 a.m. CST on on the 19th.

Hurricane force winds reached as far inland as Melville by 4 p.m.. A fifteen foot storm surge overcame the Bay St. Louis seawall. Ostrica saw an 11.5 foot surge and Shell Beach experienced an 11.2 foot storm surge. Water was 6 feet deep in Jefferson Parish. The air fields at Moisant were under 2 feet of water, closing the airport during its second year of operation.

This storm demonstrated the dire need for tidal protection levees for New Orleans. Much of the city was flooded, and $100 million in damage was produced. The storm claimed 51 victims, 12 in Louisiana."

To give some indication of the '47 storms intensity, note that the aforementioned Melville, LA is a small town on the St. Landry/Pointe Coupee Parish lines, about 100 miles northwest of New Orleans.

[LAwxrgal]

^Ironically, you mention the levee system. I heard someone say it could be a curse if a major cane were to hit New Orleans because it would be that much harder for the water to be drained.

Thoughts?

[Sean in New Orleans]

^Ironically, you mention the levee system. I heard someone say it could be a curse if a major cane were to hit New Orleans because it would be that much harder for the water to be drained.

Thoughts?

Dynamite--that plan is always prepared when a hurricane threatens the city.

[BayouVenteux]

^Ironically, you mention the levee system. I heard someone say it could be a curse if a major cane were to hit New Orleans because it would be that much harder for the water to be drained.

Thoughts?

So it has been said by many regional Emergency Management officials. The combination of the slowly sinking ground and the hurricane protection levee system may have created numerous "bowls" , where it will be very difficult to drain off floodwaters resulting from a severe storm surge.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It has been said and the plan to avoid the city flooding during a hurricane is to literally blow-up different segments of the levee system and let the water drain out if it gets inside of the levee system. Of course, this would be immediately AFTER the storm surge.

[Huckster]

The 1947 hurricane remained pretty bad rather far inland, as indicated by that reference to Melville. It was a very large hurricane, bringing hurricane force winds along a large section of the northern Gulf coast, from the FL Panhandle to LA. I have done some research on this storm (newspaper articles from 1947 and 1965 (articles comparing the storm to Betsy)). According to the Advocate (Baton Rouge's newspaper), this storm had two eyes, one that hit LA and the other that went ashore in Mississippi. It even went so far as to nickname the storm "Double Eye." Of course, any competent person these days knows hurricanes don't have two eyes. it's just impossible. But this was almost 60 years ago. I doubt MOST people knew that. After all, there were no satellites and no internet. I seriously doubt the public saw any radar (if there was any radar out of New Orleans at that time.) What "Double Eye" does indicate is that this wast a rather large hurricane. The storm passed over New Orleans, Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, and eventually Baton Rouge. The wind field had apparently decreased significantly by the time the storm reached Baton Rouge, as not much damage was reported south of the city. However, Harding Field (now Ryan Airport) reported winds of 96 mph with gusts to 120 mph. The eye lasted 30 minutes at Baton Rouge. According to the Best Track data, the pressure was as low as 970 mb as far as Baton Rouge. Pretty scary if you ask me, especially in light of the fact that there is not nearly as much marsh nowadays to the east and south of New Orleans to protect it. A repeat of 1947 would be absolutely disastrous for NO.