TS 1s is underway!

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Tuesday the 31st of August 2004
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
Location :near 04S 088E
about 1350 kilometres [720 nautical miles]
northwest of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure :1000hPa
Recent movement :slowly southwards.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Wednesday : moderate
Thursday : high
Friday : high

REMARKS - computer models show the low drifting southeast and developing over the next day or two.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[HurricaneBill]

Isn't it kinda early for tropical systems down there?

[HURAKAN]

Is early because they are still in winter, but we have to remember that some of them can form near the Equator which always has warm temperatures. Examples are:

[B-Bear]

And lest we forget, there have been Atlantic hurricanes in January and March before.

[Aslkahuna]

The Southern Hemisphere waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans average one Tropical Cyclone per every two years from July 1st through August 31st. I don't think though that they have classified it yet as TC01S.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

The Southern Hemisphere waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans average one Tropical Cyclone per every two years from July 1st through August 31st. I don't think though that they have classified it yet as TC01S.

Steve

You are right, still is just a tropical disturbance, that's way I put it as "underway".

[Stratosphere747]

Is that how they forecast??


Have to admit...Very simple...

[HurricaneBill]

Oh that's right. I remember in July 2003, the South Pacific had Cyclone Gina. A Category 3 cyclone in the middle of winter.