Corrupted Data in the models - SE FL at greater risk

[logybogy]

Fascinating discussion on talkintropics radio show. Max Mayfield apparently is very, very, concerned about some faulty dropsones that went into the storm last night and screwed up the models. He said this in a teleconference with County Emergency Management Directors.

[wxman57]

Did Max suggest how the bad data may have influenced the models? I.E., more right or more left. What models in particular were possibly affected?

[dhweather]

Yes - what models were fed this data? That's going
to be a big point to watch!

[LaBreeze]

Yes, please explain bad data impact further.

[Dean4Storms]

I questioned this in some thread somewhere, how the GFS went from consistancy westward to all over the east coast. I posted that it seemed to me that the Recon. info. seemed to screw up the models. It makes sense to me.

[caneman]

I questioned this in some thread somewhere, how the GFS went from consistancy westward to all over the east coast. I posted that it seemed to me that the Recon. info. seemed to screw up the models. It makes sense to me.

Wouldn't this have been the GFDL? Thought I read this morning that it was the one that benefited from the droposondes. Would explain why they are the only Northerly outlier.

[logybogy]

Yes, it was the GFDL. If you read the hurricane discussion for the 11pm advisory, they are basically ignoring the model runs that bring the storm north into SC.

[Agua]

I wondered about that possibility this morning. It seemed odd that as landfall grew closer, the model variance grew wider. Of course, other things could explain that as well such as some models picking up on elements not being recognized by other models.

IIrc, BarometerBob said he had spoken with an Emergency Management person who told him that Mayfield was concerned about the variance in the models and something was mentioned about somehow all the new data they put in somehow corrupted the models. Not sure if that meant the data was corrupted or the engine running the model somehow became corrupted by some event, or what was meant by that hearsay statement.

[jabber]

Garbage in , Garbage out

[piedmontnc]

The guy over at wxrisk has been saying this model is inconsistent after so many hours. Something along the same lines about dropsones almost from the get-go. I wonder if he was on to something.

[mobilebay]

I questioned this in some thread somewhere, how the GFS went from consistancy westward to all over the east coast. I posted that it seemed to me that the Recon. info. seemed to screw up the models. It makes sense to me.

I'll second that. I remember reading your post. I suspected something when they would not change their track very much even with the models turning north.