Models Move South... BAMM BAMD and LBAR

[c5Camille]

Looks like there is beginning to be some agreement
to the South... and the GOM.... these are from 2300hrs
http://net-waves.com/weather/td06.php

look at the three most current... BAMM BAMD and LBAR

[HeatherAKC]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about tropical meteorology but...

That trough that is supposed to lift F to the northwest has finished digging and exiting North already while high pressure moves in. That's the way I see it. Not think it, but see it. Call me crazy....

[Brent]

I noticed the new models. I'm very concerned this may go screaming into South Florida on Friday.

[NFLnut]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about tropical meteorology but...

That trough that is supposed to lift F to the northwest has finished digging and exiting North already while high pressure moves in. That's the way I see it. Not think it, but see it. Call me crazy....

I'm a relative dunce to troughs and all of the terms and hypotheses that have been flying past both sides of my head the last few days. Are you saying that the high pressure will push it south or just the opposite?

[Innotech]

Disclaimer: I know nothing about tropical meteorology but...

That trough that is supposed to lift F to the northwest has finished digging and exiting North already while high pressure moves in. That's the way I see it. Not think it, but see it. Call me crazy....

I'm a relative dunce to troughs and all of the terms and hypotheses that have been flying past both sides of my head the last few days. Are you saying that the high pressure will push it south or just the opposite?

high pressure ridges steer a storm along their periphery, but a trough will repel a storm completely, causing it to turn.

[washington]

The local nws office here in tallahassee says the ridge is build right over us.

area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
835 pm edt tue aug 31 2004

. discussion ... the 00 utc surface analysis shows a weak stationary
front from albany ... to panama city ... and southwest into the central
gulf. vapor imagery shows that the upper level trough that
contributed to the synoptic scale lift over our area yesterday has
weakened and ridging is developing over the southeast. isolated deep
convection is diminishing over the forecast area and the current
forecast looks on track.

&&

. tae watches/warnings/advisories...
al ... none.
ga ... none.
fl ... none.

&&

$$

fournier

[Ixolib]

I noticed the new models. I'm very concerned this may go screaming into South Florida on Friday.

Brent - What's your viewpoint on this getting into the Gulf? Is this new move any indication of a hightened concern for the central GOM?

[Dean4Storms]

I'll jump in here, several Global models as well as the new trending of most of the Tropical models are leaning toward a more westerly track as I have been saying for a week now, I even went and got me a generator on Sunday and stocked up supplies. Anyway, Frances is trapped under a westward expanding ridge of high pressure, on top of that another dome of high pressure is forecasted to drop down out of Canada and reinforce this ridge come late week. Combined they will steer Frances further west where she will begin to turn out in front of the trough that come the weekend will be in the central US. This has a very good potential to steer Frances wnw across south Florida and into the Gulf near Tampa at which point Frances would begin or have already begun to make the turn more northward as the trough coming somewhat eastward causes the High to push out off the US coast. This turn will bring her northward toward the upper Gulf coast causing a second landfall somewhere east of New Orleans.

In essence, everyone from New Orleans eastward in the Gulf and all of Florida should prepare, watch and act if Frances threatens you directly.

[pajaraff]

Just saw the 11:00 news..Broward County is in the red zone...Darn it! Thought we were in the clear. Thanks for everyone's help here. Will use all of your advice...Paja

[washington]

I think your right the second landfall will be some where in the panhandle of fl.

[Yankeegirl]

I have to agree with Dean... I think its going to impact south Fla, then into the GOM.. Then its anyones game... Just a thought though...

[CFL]

Oh no -please - not in the Gulf!

[Travelgirl]

Our met in New Orleans says nothing for us to worry about. The front will protect us. I will still keep watch.

[dhweather]

I have to agree with Dean... I think its going to impact south Fla, then into the GOM.. Then its anyones game... Just a thought though...

We'll have a better idea tomorrow for post-Florida activity for Frances.

[btsgmdad]

These models are driving me nuts. I thought 2 days ago this was a South Florida storm, earlier I thought Daytona, now back south again. I need an aspirin!

[scogor]

I'll jump in here, several Global models as well as the new trending of most of the Tropical models are leaning toward a more westerly track as I have been saying for a week now, I even went and got me a generator on Sunday and stocked up supplies. Anyway, Frances is trapped under a westward expanding ridge of high pressure, on top of that another dome of high pressure is forecasted to drop down out of Canada and reinforce this ridge come late week. Combined they will steer Frances further west where she will begin to turn out in front of the trough that come the weekend will be in the central US. This has a very good potential to steer Frances wnw across south Florida and into the Gulf near Tampa at which point Frances would begin or have already begun to make the turn more northward as the trough coming somewhat eastward causes the High to push out off the US coast. This turn will bring her northward toward the upper Gulf coast causing a second landfall somewhere east of New Orleans.

In essence, everyone from New Orleans eastward in the Gulf and all of Florida should prepare, watch and act if Frances threatens you directly.

Which would be an absolute worst scenario for much of the southwest and west central coast of Florida and very reminiscent of the Labor Day storm track (1935?)

[Windsong]

These models are driving me nuts. I thought 2 days ago this was a South Florida storm, earlier I thought Daytona, now back south again. I need an aspirin!

I was just thinking the same thing. I'll take two! This is making me nuts!

[~SirCane]

I agree with you Dean.

Tomorrow MIGHT tell the tale.