This is a big combo of forward speed and motion over the next 24 hours as an indicator through 72 hours. I followed guidance through 48 hours where it splits up, and took a turn northwest after 72 hours.
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html
Frances #14--lots of stipulations, brings into GA Sunday
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ncweatherwizard
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ncweatherwizard
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:45 am
- Location: Ft. Collins, CO
I wanted to add that if the forward speed is faster, then the track is closer to FL. But model guidance does slow the storm down--which would likely equivocate into some northwest movement. If it is slowed down, then the ridge is not building westward as quickly, and the hurricane would ride around it. The BAM models slow the storm down, but turn sharply west--I can see some turn as the high builds in a little, but that is a very sharp turn at a slow forward speed--so things don't exactly add up.
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