north turn?

[freeport_texas2005]

What would happen if this thing dosent make that "turn"?

[HURAKAN]

I will be feeling its full impact, look where I live.

[arlwx]

I think it has just made the turn ((unless previous statements blew the position)).Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 28a


Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 31, 2004


...Dangerous Hurricane Frances heading toward the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana
and Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which
includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum Cay and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.

Frances continues to be tracked with reconnaissance aircraft...
satellite images...and Doppler radar from Puerto Rico. At 8 PM
AST...0000z...the distinct eye of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 20.6 north...longitude 66.3 west or about 150
miles...245 km...north of San Juan Puerto Rico. This is also about
315 miles...505 km...east-southeast of Grand Turk island.

Frances is now moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be
passing near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands...and the
southeastern Bahamas during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft
remains at 939 mb...27.73 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are still
possible over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in
association with Frances tonight.

Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...20.6 N... 66.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...
140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 11 PM AST.

Forecaster Stewart

[PurdueWx80]

Yay...forecaster Stewart. I guess that means he'll be doing the discussion at 11 p.m. Good times. According to GOES satellite loops, the storm has actually been on the same heading for several hours. I think the NHC was just hesitant to switch to the WNW direction at 5 in case it was a temporary wobble.

[BensonTCwatcher]

might be a wobble, but I thought I noticed a more northward component on sat loop.

[BonesXL]

Could this WNW motion be the famous turn or could it just be reacting to a slight weakness in the ridge....

[BonesXL]

Could this WNW motion be the famous turn or could it just be reacting to a slight weakness in the ridge....

[BensonTCwatcher]

hard to say, looks to me like she is plowing into that ULL like it wasn't there. Somebody want to comment on the poleward outflow?

[das8929]

This isnt a turn, its merely a WNW track that was expected. WNW takes it to FL, remember that. W takes it to Cuba. So WNW was definitely expected in this track.

[calidoug]

No one (or model) has been disputing a gradual shift to a WNW movement (which looks more like 280-285, i.e. WNWW).

What many are not buying (and some models agree) is the quick shift to the NW track depicted in the current NHC graphics.

That track is necessary for a central-to-north FL landfall. Without it, S FL remains in danger.

Again, no one was expecting due W movement to continue, as that would take the storm into Cuba.

Doug

[dhweather]

Frances certainly has more of a northward component in her path right now.

I'm guessing the heading is 280-285, however, the storm is still south of all the models. The storm appears to stay just left of guidance.

[Innotech]

it looks like shes going a bit South of the track though. Not a lot, but shes definitely a bit lower than shes supposed to be.

[stormwatcher]

If you look at the TPC SAT Infared loop and super impode the forcast track over it - the storm is moving slightly north of the track. Only time will tell.

[stormwatcher]

If you look at the TPC SAT Infared loop and super impose the forcast track over it - the storm is moving slightly north of the track. Only time will tell.

[Cape Verde]

She's slightly NW at the moment, but she's also moving a little faster than expected. It wouldn't be surprising if she's slightly SW of the projected track by the morning.