New Forecast... farther south

[BensonTCwatcher]

Nope,

Derek has been within about 100 150 miles N to S for about two days. As they say in these parts, "that don't matter" what matters is the swath that Frances will affect. The folks in JAX will still have MAJOR problems. In fact, the likely track will affect FL, GA. SC and NC etc..... case in point. Anybody here from Richmond?

[Canelaw99]

Derek - just curious - what's your take on the pretty decent consensus of the models shifting to S. FL as of 18z??

[TheShrimper]

You got all bases covered pal, you cant mess up. Just wait till the previous does not pan out and then change it accordingly. Not much skill involved there. See if you can come up with something solid before it is 10 miles off the coast. I think Charley intimidated you.

[cape_escape]

I'm trying ot figure out how far I am with regard to specific lat/long degrees. In the forecast one of the coordinates is " 72 Hour: 26.0N 79.0W 125KT". Where about would that be? My coordinates here, in Cape Coral, are 26.58 N -81.95 W, so how far in miles am I looking at? Sorry, Math has never been my strong point, and unfortunatley neither has Geography!

[rainstorm]

i think dereks forecasts are quite good and informative

[Derek Ortt]

refer to the graphics for more lat/lon info as lats and lons are on the graphics


I did not say farther north, I merely didint say further south based upon model runs you likely dont have access to. However, if I have to adjust based upon the science, I will, even if it offends those with 12 posts

[StrongWind]

No math or geography needed - just typing

http://www.wcrl.ars.usda.gov/cec/java/lat-long.htm

SW

[HeatherAKC]

You got all bases covered pal, you cant mess up. Just wait till the previous does not pan out and then change it accordingly.

IMO, Derek has ALWAYS stuck to his guns with what can be described in one word...South. He's been saying South forever, even when the models said North! Is he right? Heck if I know. I appreciate his thoughtful forecasts, time and letting us in on his thoughts.

Not stirring the pot, just my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

refer to the graphics for more lat/lon info as lats and lons are on the graphics


I did not say farther north, I merely didint say further south based upon model runs you likely dont have access to. However, if I have to adjust based upon the science, I will, even if it offends those with 12 posts

[BensonTCwatcher]

It still may be coin toss until Thursday. I don't want it here or FL, and the only location I might wish this on would be France. Either way I'd rather read posts here based on science, historical data, statistics, and models. Not BS. I'll even give people I disagree with ( if they can at least make a point) and folks that are just plain scared a break, because I have been in the path of almost 27 tropical cyclones. You guys with science, educated guesses, and emperical data keep it up....

My soapbox time is up

[TheShrimper]

What the hell are you eluding to Derek, please enlighten us to this clandestine reasoning you have derived. Alot of people here are in the dark wanting to know. This could finally make a name for yourself, so strap'em on and let us know. Don't tell us after the fact.

[mobilebay]

What the hell are you eluding to Derek, please enlighten us to this clandestine reasoning you have derived. Alot of people here are in the dark wanting to know. This could finally make a name for yourself, so strap'em on and let us know. Don't tell us after the fact.

Is it just me or does derek sound like a politician. He says alot but at the end you say what does that mean. I love his forecasting , but getting a straight answer is hard. However, maybe he is talking over my head and I'm the idiot with my 12 POSTS.

[Bammer89]

Derek, are you going to post after the 11 pm. I am in Fort Lauderdale, and as one new to this board would like to know where I stand.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd love to be more aggressive. However, there is a large margin of error and since I actually do have serious responsibility with these (these are not being done for fun, if they were, I would not be stuck in my office at this hour, costing me critical preparation time), so for me to say it is definately going somewhere is irresponsible of me

[guanaskip]

Derek--
I have office in Miami, home in Abaco, mother in HHI and son in Charleston.What's my % Big F leaves me alone?
Below zero?

[Derek Ortt]

If you're in Abaco, while the chances aren't 0 as this could do something miraculous, but are 99.99% that you will receive at least some direct effects. In Miami, the chances are a little higher that you'll be left alone

[Troi]

I'm in Marion County (Just a little south of Gainesville). I'm going to get slammed aren't I?

[Lindaloo]

I would suggest some of you refrain from attacking Derek. Thanks!

Keep up the good work Derek.

[rocknole]

If you're in Abaco, while the chances aren't 0 as this could do something miraculous, but are 99.99% that you will receive at least some direct effects. In Miami, the chances are a little higher that you'll be left alone

Derek,

I, for one, greatly appreciate the effort you make to post your information on this board. If I am reading the latest forecast correctly, you are forecasting a landfall somewhere near West Palm Beach and that in 96 hours it would be slightly west of Orlando still as a significant hurricane?

[atlguy]

My first post here. Steve Lyons is now showing a much smaller cone for landfall. I know that the Weather Channel is not the final authority on where she will go but I am just looking at what he is showing. He is showing the center of the cone now between Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. I know that everyone will be glad when a more solid track can be forecast.