Despite the sudden jerk northward in the NHC's track.. What does everyone believe about Frances making a trip to Central Florida here..?
I personally think, based on the ridge and the fact that it's moving at about 15 mph make this still a real possibility..
What is everyone else's opinions
Frances to Central Florida..?
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Lowpressure
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The AVERAGE forecast track error for 5 days is about 350 miles. Draw a 350 mile circle around Jacksonville to get an idea. That's average.
Frances is about 5 days from landfall. Roughly 120 hours. So if the storm were to move at just 1mph faster or slower on average than predicted she would be 120 miles from where predicted on that factor alone. Maybe even more, because then she would be in a slightly different steering current than anticipated. The errors add up. Some of the error will be in the width (landfall location) and some in the timing (faster or slower) which both influence each other.
Frances is about 5 days from landfall. Roughly 120 hours. So if the storm were to move at just 1mph faster or slower on average than predicted she would be 120 miles from where predicted on that factor alone. Maybe even more, because then she would be in a slightly different steering current than anticipated. The errors add up. Some of the error will be in the width (landfall location) and some in the timing (faster or slower) which both influence each other.
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Josephine96 wrote:Where do you think it's going Colin?
I have no idea. I tend not to think that way. My senior research in physics was on chaos inherent in numerical modeling so I tend to think THAT way. Even the error in predicting a storm 3 days out is
pretty large. Much improved but very significant for us living on the coast. A few hundred miles is the difference between live and death - for someone.
Anyway, I really don't think I can eyeball the position and movements of various weather features and come up with a solution that is better than the NHC.
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c5Camille
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Josephine96
\c5Camille wrote:350 mile margin of error would be a circle of
700 miles in diameter... 350 in each direction...
at 5 days out... based on what we are seeing
forcast... the odds of a Ft. Lauderdale hit and a
Savanna hit are about the same...
.
Good way to put it. It's important to note that not all the error is in the landfall position. Some of it is in the timing. If landfall were predicted at Jacksonville and landfall turned out to be at Jacksonville but the storm moved 1mph slower to get there than predicted that would still be about a 120 mile error. It would interesting to see the 5 day error in the "width" of the track alone. Have never seen that.
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