11am 135mph 950mb

[c5Camille]

Showing Jacksonville hit on day 5.... Yikes!

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[wilmington-nc]

Is Jacksonville in Georgia?

[lp8391]

no Jacksonville in in N FL

[c5Camille]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 27


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 31, 2004



the last reconnaissance plane earlier this morning reported a
maximum flight level wind of 138 knots at 700 mb and a minimum
pressure of 950 mb from a drop and an extrapolated pressure of
944 mb. Satellite images show that Frances has an outstanding cloud
pattern with a large eye...banding features and excellet outflow.
The large eye can also be observed in the San Juan Puerto Rico
Doppler radar. Initial intensity has been increased to 115 knots.
Since the shear is low and the ocean is warm...some additional
strengthening is possible. However...future changes in intensity
will probably be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles...a
process rather difficult to forecast. The best option at this time
is to forecast fluctuations in intensity and keep the hurricane
as a category 4 on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale.

Frances is moving westward or 275 degrees at 13 knots. During the
the first 2 to 3 days...the hurricane will be moving between the
west and west-northwest steered by a strong subtropical rigde.
Thereafter...the intensity of the ridge varies with the different
models. Consequently...some models bring the hurricane farther west
or closer to the U.S. Coast than others. Overall...the trend of the
models since yesterday is to turn the cyclone to the northwest
earlier and none of the reliable global models except the ECMWF
bring the hurricane to extreme South Florida or the Keys. The most
significant change to the right is produced by the GFS which barely
brings the hurricane near the northeast Florida coast.
However...it is normal for models to vary from run to run and I
would rather wait for another model cycle to adjust the forecast
more the right...if necessary.

Forecaster Avila

[wilmington-nc]

That's what I thought. The map shows a hit in Georgia not Florida and I think that the forcasted path will be shifted even further east.

[Cassi]

I don't understand how the forecast on that site can take it to Jax and yet the probabilities page and map show west palm beach as the most likely, and they're both updated as of 11.

Can anyone explain? Thanks.

[frankthetank]

Check out DT over a WXRISK.....he seems to know whats going to happen.... Hes updated today (31st)

[Stormcenter]

That's what I thought. The map shows a hit in Georgia not Florida and I think that the forcasted path will be shifted even further east.

Let me guess right over NC?

[BayouVenteux]

Check out DT over a WXRISK.....he seems to know whats going to happen.... Hes updated today (31st)

And HOW!

[Josephine96]

I still think here in Central Florida we're gonna get slammed by it