11am - New Landfall

[Wallcloud]

Jacksonville, Sun. Cat-4

[Amanzi]

Where are you getting this information from?

[Zadok]

[Brent]

New NHC projected path shows it just offshore Melbourne Saturday AM and then parallelling the whole coast.

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 27

Statement as of 15:00Z on August 31, 2004

at 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the southeastern Bahamas...which includes
Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana and Ragged Islands...and for
the Turks and Caicos Islands...and a Hurricane Watch for the
central Bahamas which includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum
Cay and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico...
Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St.
John and surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the government of the Dominican Republic has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay and
has discontinued the tropical storm watch south of Punta Gorda.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been
discontinued for St. Martin...St. Barthelemy...and St. Croix.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been
discontinued for Antigua...Barbuda...Anguilla...Nevis...St
maarten...St eustatius...Saba and Guadeloupe.

Hurricane center located near 20.0n 64.0w at 31/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 950 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 45se 35sw 60nw.
50 kt....... 90ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt.......150ne 130se 100sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..275ne 170se 170sw 275nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 20.0n 64.0w at 31/1500z
at 31/1200z center was located near 19.9n 63.3w

forecast valid 01/0000z 20.4n 66.1w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 45se 35sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 01/1200z 21.5n 68.7w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 50se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 02/0000z 22.5n 71.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 50se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt... 90ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 110sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 02/1200z 23.5n 73.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 90se 80sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 110sw 160nw.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 25.5n 76.5w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 90se 80sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 140se 110sw 160nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/1200z 27.5n 79.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.

Outlook valid 05/1200z 30.5n 81.5w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 20.0n 64.0w

next advisory at 31/2100z

forecaster Avila

[lp8391]

when making such a bold statement, a link to the source would be very helpful

[dhweather]

It's too early to tell that. The models did move right, but that is not a sustained pattern yet.

Regardless, it appears the southeast US is in for a cat 4 landfalling hurricane

[Brent]

Here's a link:

[Canelaw99]

I just don't know how we can trust these new forecast paths. I know that they're all subject to hundreds of miles of errors, but they go from pretty far north, to south, then back north again. I'm just not sure that they know where it's going, so I don't feel I can trust these new paths...ugh...I've had a gut feeling about this storm since day 1, that it's a southern FL storm, and I just can't shake that until it's well away from this area. I'm not wishing it this way, that's for sure...it's just a feeling I have....

[tropicsgal]

Correct me if i'm wrong but i've heard the meterologist say not to follow the line in the middle. Look at the swath. It can go anywhere within the yellow area? Again i maybe wrong. Thanks

[frankthetank]

I see CNN is covering it as one of there main stories....

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/08/31/h ... index.html

[tropicsgal]

Correct me if i'm wrong but i've heard the meterologist say not to follow the line in the middle. Look at the swath. It can go anywhere within the yellow area? Again i maybe wrong. Thanks

[dhweather]

Correct me if i'm wrong but i've heard the meterologist say not to follow the line in the middle. Look at the swath. It can go anywhere within the yellow area? Again i maybe wrong. Thanks

That is correct. The line in the middle is "best guess", and usually has the highest level of confidence the NHC can offer at the time issued.

The entire yellow area is a possibility.

After 72 hours, I just don't trust the models.