Air Force Met - MWatkins or any Met

caneman · #1 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:47 am

What type of role will the ULL in the Bahamsa play. Looks to me to have moved only 50 miles or so in the last 10 hours. So if you you extrapolate, it would perhaps move another 100 to 150 milesby the time Frances comes in contact. What is your take? How much has it moved? How far do you think it will move by the time Frances impedes on it? Assuming it doesn't move much and High Pressure is on top would this initially createda NW movement and eventually back to West as it squeezes thru? You analysis would be appreciated.

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:51 am

Good ?

caneman · #3 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:53 am

OK, may have had my own question answered. Got this over at CFHC site the 7 day HPC forecast loop. Looks to initially go NW around the ULL and then builds back towards the Central Florida coastline. Take a look and tohughts welcome.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:54 am

Good ?[/img]

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:55 am

I was looking at that last night. It's forecasted to move out before then. I am always leary of upper lows that don't move as forecasted though. That is what happened with Bret. An upper low in northern Mexico hung around longer than forecast...and since major hurricanes are steered at about 300-400 mb...they can turn them...instead of sheering them (if they aren't too strong). An upper low is what steered Alicia NNW into a blocking high over OK. It will ahve to be watched...but I think it will eventually move out over the next couple of days.

#6 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:59 am

It hasnt moved very much in the past several hours. Perhaps that could allow Frannie to move more north. However until the models start pickin up on it I wont make too much of it.

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:04 am

models typically butcher UL forecasts, just like they ignored the UL ahead of Charley

#8 Postby **Pebbles** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:08 am

Derek Ortt wrote:models typically butcher UL forecasts, just like they ignored the UL ahead of Charley

Derek, are you saying you think if this doesn't move out of the picture soon it could indeed impact the hurricane and send it north a bit in track?

#9 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:09 am

Basically there is a split in the models with what happens to the ULL. The northern tracking models lift the ULL northward out in front of Frances whereas the westward tracking models back the ULL toward Florida and dissapate it. We will have to wait and see.

caneman · #10 Postby **caneman** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:14 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Basically there is a split in the models with what happens to the ULL. The northern tracking models lift the ULL northward out in front of Frances whereas the westward tracking models back the ULL toward Florida and dissapate it. We will have to wait and see.

I'm guessing it is backing ever so slowly SW as that is discussed in the 8:00 TWD. However, not by by much so lets just assume it backs about 0- 100 miles and High pressure on top with Frances coming thru. Looking at HPC it looks like a NW turn and then back to WNW across Central Florida.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 9:48 am

It looks to me the the ULL is moving west & is weakening.

Air Force Met - MWatkins or any Met

Air Force Met - MWatkins or any Met

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