Brevard County Residents
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cflweather
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 61
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
- Location: Palm Bay, FL
Trying not to panic
All thw buzz here at work and there about 6400 employees here is that people are planning to leave tomorrow. I live in a new block home that comes with hurricane shutters so guess I will see how good the builder is LOL. Hope it turns though. I have heard people going to ALA, Tallahassee or south somewhere. They are saying they can't find a hotel they are all full already. I have 5 pets so it would be hard for me to go anywhere. Everyone be safe
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cflweather
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 61
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
- Location: Palm Bay, FL
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kevin
IF (and I realize this is a big "IF") Frances made a direct hit on Melbourne or within 50 miles of Melbourne as a category 4/5, would a concrete block house even stand???<<
Maybe. Depends on whether you get a tornado really. Now reinforced concrete walls are tough. They should be able to stand up against a cat 5. Your roof however, will not.
Maybe. Depends on whether you get a tornado really. Now reinforced concrete walls are tough. They should be able to stand up against a cat 5. Your roof however, will not.
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cflweather
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 61
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
- Location: Palm Bay, FL
The article in Florida Today this morning...
Frances takes ominous path
Hurricane may strike Brevard on Saturday
BY CHRIS KRIDLER
FLORIDA TODAY
A familiar weather pattern known as the Bermuda high is pushing powerful Hurricane Frances relentlessly westward, toward Florida's East Coast.
The center of the National Hurricane Center's track for Frances, in the forecast released at 11 p.m. Monday, put it near the Brevard=IndianRiver County line on Saturday afternoon.
Forecasts that far out can have a margin of error of several hundred miles, as the hurricane center's discussions have noted frequently in the wake of Hurricane Charley's surprise turn.
Even if the eye misses a particular spot, the area of hurricane-force winds can be more than a hundred miles across. Monday, top sustained winds were 125 mph, a Category 3 storm. Additional strengthening was possible.
"If you live along the Florida eastern seaboard, you should be preparing for a storm event," said Dennis Decker, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Melbourne.
Brevard's Office of Emergency Management is reviewing its plans, Director Bob Lay said, especially since there's a lot of uncertainty this far out.
"We are certainly encouraging all our residents to replenish all the hurricane supplies they might have used during Hurricane Charley," he said.
That's water and food for 72 hours without electricity.
At Home Depot on Merritt Island, a steady stream of residents emerged Monday with carts full of plywood.
Rick Buchanan, a cable TV contractor, was loading up 20 sheets for his Port St. John home, as well as his mother-in-law and grandmother's houses. "We could definitely get hit," he said.
James Frizell of Cocoa, helped by his brother Mike, was buying plywood, screws and plastic gasoline containers.
"I think it's going to hit us," James said. "If not, it's going to be close enough to do some damage. . . . It's better to be prepared than unprepared."
By 7 p.m., the store had posted a sign saying there was a 15-sheet limit on plywood, and about 25 people were waiting in line to buy it.
Jim and Sue Schick of Merritt Island, with their daughter, Julie, were loading a boat trailer with plywood Monday afternoon.
"We may not need it, but I don't want to fight the crowds on Friday," Sue said, adding, "It's coming too close for comfort."
The reason it's coming so close is that the subtropical ridge of high pressure -- also known as the Bermuda high -- is pushing Frances west.
Though the clockwise winds around the high often curve storms north -- such as 1996's Fran, 2003's Isabel and 1999's massive Floyd at the last minute -- sometimes the pressure builds west and won't let them turn in time to miss Florida.
"There are some where the storm doesn't turn," meteorologist Decker said. "It just comes right on in. Erin was an example of that."
Erin, however, was a marginal hurricane when it came ashore at Vero Beach in 1995.
"Frances is a pretty intense storm right now, and it's in a favorable environment," Decker said.
"The bad news for the Bahamas and Florida peninsula," according to a National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, "is that there is no significant mid-latitude trough in the current model forecasts through 5 days that could substantially weaken this ridge."
Brevard wouldn't consider evacuations until 48 hours before the arrival of 48 mph winds, possibly as early as Thursday, Lay said.
Today, Kennedy Space Center may begin hurricane preparations, NASA spokesman Michael Rein said.
The spaceport enters the first level of hurricane alert 72 hours before the earliest arrival of 58 mph winds.
"We're preparing to prepare," Rein said. "We are not taking the situation lightly."
The launch control center is built to withstand a Category 5 storm, but many buildings at KSC can take only a Category 3 storm or less, including the buildings that house the space shuttles.
"If Hurricane Frances continues on its track, and that track ends up coming in this area, we are going to do everything possible to secure the orbiters," Rein said, "but then, at some point, it's going to be up to Hurricane Frances how it all turns out."
Frances takes ominous path
Hurricane may strike Brevard on Saturday
BY CHRIS KRIDLER
FLORIDA TODAY
A familiar weather pattern known as the Bermuda high is pushing powerful Hurricane Frances relentlessly westward, toward Florida's East Coast.
The center of the National Hurricane Center's track for Frances, in the forecast released at 11 p.m. Monday, put it near the Brevard=IndianRiver County line on Saturday afternoon.
Forecasts that far out can have a margin of error of several hundred miles, as the hurricane center's discussions have noted frequently in the wake of Hurricane Charley's surprise turn.
Even if the eye misses a particular spot, the area of hurricane-force winds can be more than a hundred miles across. Monday, top sustained winds were 125 mph, a Category 3 storm. Additional strengthening was possible.
"If you live along the Florida eastern seaboard, you should be preparing for a storm event," said Dennis Decker, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Melbourne.
Brevard's Office of Emergency Management is reviewing its plans, Director Bob Lay said, especially since there's a lot of uncertainty this far out.
"We are certainly encouraging all our residents to replenish all the hurricane supplies they might have used during Hurricane Charley," he said.
That's water and food for 72 hours without electricity.
At Home Depot on Merritt Island, a steady stream of residents emerged Monday with carts full of plywood.
Rick Buchanan, a cable TV contractor, was loading up 20 sheets for his Port St. John home, as well as his mother-in-law and grandmother's houses. "We could definitely get hit," he said.
James Frizell of Cocoa, helped by his brother Mike, was buying plywood, screws and plastic gasoline containers.
"I think it's going to hit us," James said. "If not, it's going to be close enough to do some damage. . . . It's better to be prepared than unprepared."
By 7 p.m., the store had posted a sign saying there was a 15-sheet limit on plywood, and about 25 people were waiting in line to buy it.
Jim and Sue Schick of Merritt Island, with their daughter, Julie, were loading a boat trailer with plywood Monday afternoon.
"We may not need it, but I don't want to fight the crowds on Friday," Sue said, adding, "It's coming too close for comfort."
The reason it's coming so close is that the subtropical ridge of high pressure -- also known as the Bermuda high -- is pushing Frances west.
Though the clockwise winds around the high often curve storms north -- such as 1996's Fran, 2003's Isabel and 1999's massive Floyd at the last minute -- sometimes the pressure builds west and won't let them turn in time to miss Florida.
"There are some where the storm doesn't turn," meteorologist Decker said. "It just comes right on in. Erin was an example of that."
Erin, however, was a marginal hurricane when it came ashore at Vero Beach in 1995.
"Frances is a pretty intense storm right now, and it's in a favorable environment," Decker said.
"The bad news for the Bahamas and Florida peninsula," according to a National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, "is that there is no significant mid-latitude trough in the current model forecasts through 5 days that could substantially weaken this ridge."
Brevard wouldn't consider evacuations until 48 hours before the arrival of 48 mph winds, possibly as early as Thursday, Lay said.
Today, Kennedy Space Center may begin hurricane preparations, NASA spokesman Michael Rein said.
The spaceport enters the first level of hurricane alert 72 hours before the earliest arrival of 58 mph winds.
"We're preparing to prepare," Rein said. "We are not taking the situation lightly."
The launch control center is built to withstand a Category 5 storm, but many buildings at KSC can take only a Category 3 storm or less, including the buildings that house the space shuttles.
"If Hurricane Frances continues on its track, and that track ends up coming in this area, we are going to do everything possible to secure the orbiters," Rein said, "but then, at some point, it's going to be up to Hurricane Frances how it all turns out."
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Okay...Glen Richards (Met from local Fox) says we are slated for sustained winds of 140 MPH. I am hoping the track keeps shifting, although it is not a good situation for anybody, anyplace....
Hope you have all gotten your evacuation plans in motion adn that we all come through this unscathed.
Best,
Windsong
Hope you have all gotten your evacuation plans in motion adn that we all come through this unscathed.
Best,
Windsong
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