EURO Says Hello New Orleans!!

#2 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:57 am

lol, it brings un hola de us people of miami if it does come that way....

-Eric

Matthew5 · #3 Postby **Matthew5** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:58 am

If that happen on top of what it could do to Florida your talking hundreds of billions of dollars worth of damage! :eek:

#4 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:58 am

Wow, fun for the whole family! :lol:

#5 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:10 am

And now I need to hear from the pros about historical accuracy of this model. Is there any way this could happen? (And I dont mean minute chances, I mean a real chance...)

Patrick99 · #6 Postby **Patrick99** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:12 am

Another day of speculation and model-watching. I wish Frances would hit already, and be done with it.

Innotech · #7 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:17 am

alicia-w wrote:And now I need to hear from the pros about historical accuracy of this model. Is there any way this could happen? (And I dont mean minute chances, I mean a real chance...)

if that high pressure ridge builds west and strong enough, yes its possible.

#8 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:18 am

alicia-w wrote:And now I need to hear from the pros about historical accuracy of this model. Is there any way this could happen? (And I dont mean minute chances, I mean a real chance...)

I'm certainly no pro, and I passed up the Holiday Inn last night on my way back home yesterday

, but FWIW, the Euro's most recent history was one of less than stellar performance regarding Charley's track...but...in the past it has done pretty well on fully developed, mature storms like Floyd.

Innotech · #9 Postby **Innotech** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:19 am

alicia-w wrote:And now I need to hear from the pros about historical accuracy of this model. Is there any way this could happen? (And I dont mean minute chances, I mean a real chance...)

it accurately predicted Floyd and Isabel, so thats something to think about.

#10 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:21 am

well crap, do it's off to the mountains for us, I guess. that's one heckuva way to extend the weekend....

justlooking · #11 Postby **justlooking** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:30 am

Looks like we're hauling the wrong freight. Should be house movers starting with our farmhouse in south MS. We're stuck in Phoenix waiting on a load and praying Frances will either turn or die.

#12 Postby **Steve** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:42 am

Bastardi opined that he has worries for the central gulf later in the year. He's not buying the ECMWF's solution, but it said the only two storms it really intensified this year, it did so in the Gulf. (he's saying that down the road the NCG faces a serious threat if the ECMWF is sniffing out something).

Steve

frankthetank · #13 Postby **frankthetank** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:48 am

ive always thought the ECMWF is a very accurate model, although i'm not too sure about tropical system past performance...DT over @ WXRISK seems to hold the model in very high regard....This model has not been a flip flopper like others....seems to be pretty consistent.....

CaneCurious · #14 Postby **CaneCurious** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:25 am

What is the REAL possibility of this happening? I live in N.O. and our local met says not to pay attention to just one model run but some respect this model. Please advise if we should start to worry at all.

#15 Postby **bevgo** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:29 am

Holy Crap! LOL. I sure hope not. I have just moved to Ocean Springs from the New Orleans area but my house is still in New Orleans with some of my stuff and my adult son.

LaPlaceFF · #16 Postby **LaPlaceFF** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:56 am

Holy shnikes!!

Nimbus · #17 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 12:01 pm

Look at the water vapor loop the ECMWF model is starting to verify. The ULL that was west of Frances can be seen lifting out and the ridge ahead of the storm is bulldozing west underneath the tail end of the trough in Louisiana. Frances is still moving nearly west at 280 degrees and is already south of the official track. Would probably be smarter to flip the official track down through the Florida straights and adjust it back north as necessary. If they start evacuating people southward from the Carolinas its going to be kind of crowded in Key West by the time they decide on the actual landfall.

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 1:04 pm

I'll stick with my stance - anything any model says
beyond 72 hours is nothing more than a SWAG.

We are getting close enough in 72 hours for the
NHC to officially say somwthing like "residents of
the entire Florida East Coast should closely monitor"
blah blah.

I don't see this northward component.

stormernie · #19 Postby **stormernie** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 1:43 pm

If you see the system is now heading WNW at about 16 mph, this hurricane seems to be feeling the affects of Gaston to the north. Once this happens then the real question comes up. - If it turns back more to the west than south florida may be more in harms way. But, in all likelihood it will turn to the NW and head out to the Carolinas or out to sea as it feels the approaching trough from the west,

EURO Says Hello New Orleans!!

EURO Says Hello New Orleans!!

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