More confused than ever

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mobilebay
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More confused than ever

#1 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:13 am

Boy the models are split. The GFDL,GFS,BAMM, and BAMD all take frances toward the Carolinas. The Euro, CMC, A98e,LBAR,ETA with a central or South Florida hit. The UKMET split the difference and sent it into Jacksonville. at this point who Knows? Oh yeah, add the NOGAPS to the South/Central Florida MIX. The NHC said the 00Z runs would be interesting, but I don't think they was counting on this.
Last edited by mobilebay on Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:16 am

I would put my money on the ECMWF for Global with the Lbar for hurricane models. The gfs has been all over the place.
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#3 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:18 am

Thats what I said earlier. Itn't the BAMM Models a spin off of the GFS?
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#4 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:20 am

Most of the hurricane models included the GFDL is a back drop of the Gfs.
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#5 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:29 am

Also, the new 6Z ETA is coming in, and it is staying south again through 66 hours.
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#6 Postby sunflowerkist » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:38 am

mobilebay wrote:Also, the new 6Z ETA is coming in, and it is staying south again through 66 hours.

Does anyone know why the data is so split? Are there that many different pieces of energy out there to cause so much divergence? IF so how come the storm has been so consistent in its path?
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#7 Postby mobilebay » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:23 am

Update... The 06Z ETA keeps Frances just offshore Miami in 84 Hours. :eek:
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#8 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:52 am

mobilebay wrote:Update... The 06Z ETA keeps Frances just offshore Miami in 84 Hours. :eek:


offhsore will be just fine...west side of this storm is a good thing
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#9 Postby Derecho » Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:12 am

The BAMD and GFDL are storm-specific models that use the GFS as a "background field" so neither of the above two will differ much from the GFS. (The BAMM is an irrelevant model for an actual hurricane.)

So if you have, say, 8 models, the BAMD and GFDL really don't count as, say "3" of the models.......that over-weights the GFS.

Also, the 6Z NGP is N of the 0Z NGP; it points to South Carolina now.
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