The 00z GFS is full of...

[ALhurricane]

BALLYHOO!! such big words I know...

In all seriousness, I cannot for the life of me understand what the GFS is doing. It seems to absolutely defy meteorological reasoning by turning Frances hard to the NW right into a ridge.

As far as I am concerned, unless other models jump right no board (which I don't think), I am discounting the GFS.

Just remember... 12z GFS S FL.. 00z GFS... NC...

[btsgmdad]

Its amazing how crazy these things have been over the past couple of days. Guess that's just good ol' weather.

[btangy]

I think the NHC will also ignore the 00Z GFS. It just doesn't seem reasonable.

[hurricanemike]

06Z GFDL wants to do the same thing...probably be ignored as well.

[mobilebay]

Could you give me the GFDL link? The one on the PSU website has not updated.

[Anonymous]

Here is the models as of 00z and 06z runs... From what I've heard, the Hurricane models (bam's lbar and gfdl) are run off the 0z GFs--thus the wild shift but UKMET is its own model and it shifted as well. Wonder what the euro will say?

[ericinmia]

^^ that is by far the biggest spread we have had thus yet with this storm... Sadly, we know that many of those paths simply are not possible.
-Eric

[Matthew5]

This storm is trying to throw us off so it can trick us because it sure seems like it!

[mobilebay]

I Know that Gut feelings isn't worth nothing on this board and I rarely post them. However, all along I have felt like it was going to hit Southern Florida and into the GUlf (not trying to be a Homer). Then turn north into the florida Panhandle in front of the Trough. After reading the 11 PM Discussion I believe the NHC thinks that ridge will be stronger than the models predict.

[stormcloud]

It seems that the 0z GFS is deepening the trough in the middle sections of the country more than it had on earlier runs. That would then help erode the ridge and Frances then moves around the western edge of it. It will be interesting to see if the GFS holds on to that idea in future runs....

[mobilebay]

It seems that the 0z GFS is deepening the trough in the middle sections of the country more than it had on earlier runs. That would then help erode the ridge and Frances then moves around the western edge of it. It will be interesting to see if the GFS holds on to that idea in future runs....

I have noticed that with the GFS that one run the Trough will be stronger, and the next it will be weaker. Also from what I've noticed the GFS has fronts moving to fast alot. I know here in MObile the NWS has had to delay Frontal passage as much as 48 hours in the past from the GFS original prediction. 48 Hours would be critical with this cane.