Models are interesting indeed....

[hurricanetrack]

Well, so far I have seen out to 90 hours on the new 0Z GFS and it takes Frances northwest instead of west- aiming more towards NE Florida perhaps?

How will this change the GFDL and will the UKMET come to the same conclusion too?

The plot thickens....or does it?

[c5Camille]

it would be convienient if the storm came to you...
not that the traffic would be bad if you were headed
south...

[hurricanetrack]

Here is the 114 hour plot:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114m.gif

Well east of Florida as compared to almost making landfall. About 76.5W and 28.5N? Hmm... let's see what the rest of the run shows....

[Anonymous]

These keep going back and forth... What a headache! The forecast track and models pointed at south florida...then Jacksonville...Now Central Florida.....Who's next or more importantly, who is last.

[Wannabewxman79]

If Frances is that far east at that point I think it will be a fish but that is just one run from one model so we will see.

[Weather4Life23]

Here is the 114 hour plot:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114m.gif

Well east of Florida as compared to almost making landfall. About 76.5W and 28.5N? Hmm... let's see what the rest of the run shows....

I really appreciate your website and everything you and your crew are doing. Keep up the good work!!

[hurricanetrack]

Well there you have it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150m.gif

Right on Wilmington once again in 150 hours. So Stewart was right- the models were interesting indeed. Let's see how this plays in to things. Just one run- so who knows. At least I can stay put and do my mission right here. No hotels, no travel, just a major hurricane in my backyard. Yep- what else is new?

[btsgmdad]

Another case of why its better to finish first rather than last.

[ilmc172pilot]

Oh boy......I'm right on carolina beach also....how accurate are these models?...

[chris_fit]

not accurate

[Guadua]

I'm thinking if the low SE of florida moves NW it draws Frances towards melbourne or the cape and if it goes west, Frances goes a more south torwards me, unfortunatley. I noticed Frances seems to be moving at twice the speed of the low and will pinn wheel around it....