Projected Path

[Cookiely]

Can anyone tell me after landfall in South or Central Florida, what the direction is forecast to go. I know its early to tell but is it going across the state to GOM or is it just going North up the center of the state? Is it impossible for it to go across the state?

[Brent]

Probably WNW or NW, but that could change.

[Cookiely]

Thanks Brent.

[dhweather]

Frances can realistically do many different scenarios on Florida. Stay tuned for Tuesday's model runs, we'll have a good deal of insight then.

[opera ghost]

It is entirely *possible* for it to cross florida.... as in hurricanes do it with some degree of historical regularity. Whether Francis is going to do that- only god knows at the moment. IF it croses the state- it *could* go into the gulf. Or it could go right up the center of the state. Really at this poitn it's a bit too early to tell.

[TLHR]

Do you realize that if the NHC track holds true, then all of Disney World and Orland is SOL.

[Dean4Storms]

If Frances tracks into south Florida it will mean that the ridge is extending at least to Florida and this is where she begins to round the western periphery of the ridge. On this trajectory she would likely cross the peninsula before making enough of a turn due north and wind up in the eastern GOM possible near Tampa, from there northward into the Panhandle. If and I stress the word "IF" Frances stays on a more westerly trajectory and through the Florida straits or the Keys then you have to move the north Gulf coast landfall westward as far maybe as New Orleans.

[NFLnut]

Why does the NHC model disagree so much with all of the other models?

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. Unless Frances landfalls on SE Florida, I can't see her trekking into the GOM.

[Derecho]

Why does the NHC model disagree so much with all of the other models?

WHat on earth do you mean? The NHC forecast track (which isn't a model) or the NHC98 model (also known as the A98E?)