Should i be worried in Boca Raton?

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Hurricanegurl56
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Should i be worried in Boca Raton?

#1 Postby Hurricanegurl56 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:41 pm

lets say it makes landfall in Fort Pierce would i be effected with 100+ winds in Boca? (already have supplies all set up :) im just asking)
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wolffeeder
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#2 Postby wolffeeder » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:01 pm

If you look at the forecast advisories at the National Hurricane Center site they tell you how far out winds are in various directions, like this from 5PM:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

So, as of 5 pm they think those 64 kt hurricane winds are 60 nautical miles at most on the west or south sides of the hurricane, 60 x 1.15 gives about 69 normal American miles (if I got the conversion right) to the northwest somewhere, but only half that to the southwest. Looking at my handy atlas and imagining how it might come in, probably Boca might get hurricane winds. Or not. It would depend on the angle it was coming in. But that's one way to get a handle on how big the storm is, what you might get.

Or you can go to the graphics and maps page at the NHC site and look at the wind swath (so far ) map and project it forward. That saves doing math.

Or at the Navy site they put little circles that represent how far out the winds at various levels go, but their explanation just says the circles are “wind radii”, so I get confused about what circle represents what wind speed usually.

Of course you probably realize that those are the sustained winds, gusts can be higher. And that the storm could get bigger, or decide to do a small last minute shift in path and visit the mini mansions and dorms and apartment houses of Boca instead of Fort Pierce.

Now, as to whether to worry, that depends on if you enjoy worrying I guess. But do pay attention.
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