Florida Faces Possible 2nd Major Hurricane Hit

[donsutherland1]

Since 1950, there have been only four seasons in which two or more major hurricanes made landfall in the United States:

1950: 2
1954: 3
1955: 3
1985: 2

In all of those seasons, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) averaged below zero. 2004 is all but certain to see an above zero average. Thus, if Frances makes landfall as a major hurricane, it could make history.

At this point in time, such a landfall appears likely. Historical odds notwithstanding, several factors point to that possibility:

• Warm to very warm SSTs ahead of Frances
• Increasingly favorable wind shear environment
• Ridging that should preclude a recurvature away from the United States even as the western Atlantic ridging begins to erode

Looking at the seasons in which two or more major hurricanes made landfall in the United States, 1950 stands out as the season in which two major hurricanes made landfall in Florida:

• Hurricane Easy (Category 3): Northwestern Florida
• Hurricane King (Category 3): Southeastern Florida

So far, 2004 has been extremely active in August.

Most Named Storms that Formed in August:
7, 1995, 2004
5, 1969, 1976, 1990

Most Hurricanes that Formed in August:
4, 1950, 1969, 1976, 1995

Most Major Hurricanes that Formed in August:
4, 1950

Interestingly enough, 1950's first named storm developed on August 12. By the time the 1950 hurricane season had ended 11 of 13 named storms had been hurricanes and 8 of those 11 hurricanes were major hurricanes. As noted earlier, two of those major hurricanes (Easy and King) made landfall in Florida.

Of all the years listed above, only 1954 and 1995 saw their first named storm develop before July 1. All the others saw their first named storm form July 22 or later. 2004 saw Alex develop on July 31.

All said, the 2004 hurricane season reinforces the idea that late-starting seasons not only can be active, but they can be extreme in terms of major hurricanes.

For now, it appears increasingly likely that Florida will see a second major hurricane this season make landfall. Hopefully, things will change, but right now prospects for a way out don't look very bright with strong model support for such a landfall.

[chris_fit]

Interesting stats... I think we're in for it again

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

I very much hope that things will change. Having friends and relatives in Florida, not to mention the great human and economic costs such a storm could inflict, especially if it hit a major city, one can only hope that it either weakens or turns away. Unfortunately, the model guidance and environment don't hold out much hope. In fact, there are signs that she's beginning to intensify with a new central pressure of 945 mb being reported (down 3 mb from the last report).

[Derek Ortt]

1985 only hd Elena. Gloria and Kate both weakened to below major intensity before landfall

for Gloria's best track go here ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim05.gif

[donsutherland1]

Derek,

Interestingly enough, a TPC report classifies Gloria as a Category 3 on landfall "justified by winds."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

wow,

they are going against their own data then

[Aquawind]

Wow a record setting year alrighty..

[donsutherland1]

It would be useful to try to find out what data was employed to make the judgment. Perhaps, I'll e-mail the report's authors if I cannot find the data elsewhere.