How worried should I be in Ft Lauderdale???

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Canehater
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How worried should I be in Ft Lauderdale???

#1 Postby Canehater » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:19 pm

What do you guys think? I live about 10 miles inland, directly west of Ft Lauderdale. Should I be ready to bolt??
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#2 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:25 pm

On a scale of 1 to 10...where 1 means you are sitting in California and not really worried about Frances at all :-) and 10 means you are currently at 19.5N and 60.0W...I would be at about a 6.

The 5 day track brings her to within 80 miles of you early Saturday morning. That's about how far the 50 kt winds extend...although I doubt you would see 50 kt sustained on the SW side 80 miles away. But...just 1 degree change in track to the west gets you in the eyewall.
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#3 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:30 pm

how about s.c.....scale 1 to 10??
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#4 Postby sprink52 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:56 pm

Just don't put the storm out of your mind. Do the things that we all do living here in paradise. Be prepared. You don't have to leave Plantation unless you are in a trailer but I don't think they are allowed there.
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#5 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:04 pm

South Carolina...I would say a 4 based on the same reasoning described above. It has dropped slightly since yesterday where I would say was a 6, but you still need to monitor it just in case some deviation to the right occurs...
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#6 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:06 pm

I agree with Air Force Met...I am kind of worried at the moment...worried enough that I am buying a couple of things tomorrow morning to top my supply list. My question is when do we think watches/warnings would go up assuming the path stays about the same?
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#7 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm

JPmia wrote:I agree with Air Force Met...I am kind of worried at the moment...worried enough that I am buying a couple of things tomorrow morning to top my supply list. My question is when do we think watches/warnings would go up assuming the path stays about the same?


dont worry...be prepared.
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#8 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:12 pm

JPmia wrote:I agree with Air Force Met...I am kind of worried at the moment...worried enough that I am buying a couple of things tomorrow morning to top my supply list. My question is when do we think watches/warnings would go up assuming the path stays about the same?


Watches would likely go up Wednesday evening, as TS force winds may reach the lower Peninsula by mid day Friday. Warnings would be Thursday morning.
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Re: How worried should I be in Ft Lauderdale???

#9 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:18 pm

Canehater wrote:What do you guys think? I live about 10 miles inland, directly west of Ft Lauderdale. Should I be ready to bolt??


I wouldn't "worry" yet. Just monitor the latest from the NHC and your local mets. As Air Force Met said, a slight deviation off the official track could bring the eye to you, BUT, it's still 5 days out. Plenty of time to watch it and for the track to change.
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#10 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:30 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:how about s.c.....scale 1 to 10??


2-3 if you are north SC...maybe a solid 3 for souther SC
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#11 Postby skyking » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:41 pm

I live in Port Saint John across from the Space Center,
do we evacuate to the north or go west to Tampa.
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#12 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:42 pm

north... north...
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#13 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:43 pm

I'd say if you live on the Space Center side.. evacuate to the west.. just my opinion though
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#14 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:45 pm

i thought the storm was as wide as florida?? would'nt north make more sense in this case??
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charley
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#15 Postby charley » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:45 pm

Hey AFM ~

What about if you're in Melbourne, FL? On a scale of 1 to 10, realizing nothing is set in concrete, of course.
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#16 Postby TheShrimper » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:46 pm

Absolutely not. Get across the state on 70 and take 27 to Moorehaven then 82 west to Ft. Myers or Naples.
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#17 Postby HurricaneJim » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:54 pm

Wouldn't SERT have that sort of info? (State Emergency Response team)

Jim
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#18 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:06 pm

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:i thought the storm was as wide as florida?? would'nt north make more sense in this case??


Depends on the track. If it makes landfall and is moving NNW or NW, no. If it's moving W or WNW, yes it makes sense. It all depends on the motion of the storm.
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