Significant Event

[Tip]

Frances eye has offically crossed into the Herbert Box and now it's just a matter of time and location if we are to believe that criteria.

[ChaserUK]

Can someone please explain this Herbert Box?

[wxman57]

Frances eye has offically crossed into the Herbert Box and now it's just a matter of time and location if we are to believe that criteria.

Yep, and it's the "Hebert" box not the "HeRbert" box.

[lfrank54]

I found a good explanation of "Hebert Box" at http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... 03box.html

[wnknisely]

Can someone please explain this Herbert Box?

More info here:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[Roxy]

Frances eye has offically crossed into the Herbert Box and now it's just a matter of time and location if we are to believe that criteria.

Yep, and it's the "Hebert" box not the "HeRbert" box.

is that pronounced eh-bear, or he-bert?

Just kidding. Good info though, I was curious to learn more.

[ChaserUK]

Can someone please explain this Herbert Box?

[Cookiely]

Can someone please explain this Herbert Box?

The link is in an earlier mesage.
Many people visiting hurricanecity have asked "what is this hebert box I keep hearing about"?. The HebertBox was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former nws & nhc forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricanes that devestated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on what passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.




BOX #1 (since 1950)
1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....





BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba....1952 FoxCaymans,Cuba,Bahamas....1961 HattieBelize....1981 KatrinaCuba,Bahamas....1995 RoxanneYucatan....1998 MitchHonduras....2001 irisBelize....2001 MichelleCuba,Bahamas....


So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82 make it into the Gulf of Mexico.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
1)Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.
2)Since 1950 Fla has not be hit late season by Hurricanes in this grid. The reason for the box is data prior to 1950.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose names storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

[Josephine96]

I learned about the Hebert box last year

[Air Force Met]

Frances eye has offically crossed into the Herbert Box and now it's just a matter of time and location if we are to believe that criteria.

Yep, and it's the "Hebert" box not the "HeRbert" box.

Probably a little sensative with that pronunciation...ey

[JQ Public]

So andrew didn't go through the box?

[KeyLargoDave]

Isn't that what the picture shows?