5pm Discussion (F)

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT41 KNHC 302024
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

REPORTS FROM A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB AND THERE WAS A FLIGHT
LEVEL...700 MB...WIND OF 122 KT JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.
THERE IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES...SUCH AS THE CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS THAT WERE OBSERVED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND ALSO SEEN
IN TRMM AND SSM/I DATA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY
CONSERVATIVE.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...275/12. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE IS
INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME
SLOWING AND A SLIGHT BENDING OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT
IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ONCE AGAIN...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS
NOT A POINT...ESPECIALLY A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS FRANCES...AND
FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

FORECASTER PASCH

[x-y-no]

Interesting ... the vortex message said "MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 1806Z."

I guess they saw a higher wind later.

[Air Force Met]

5 Day position is just 20 miles from Ft Pierce

[x-y-no]

This is turning into a big circulation:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

(from the 5pm advisory)

[Windsong]

Didn't the last advisory say 85 miles from center?

[x-y-no]

Didn't the last advisory say 85 miles from center?

Hmmm ... so it did. Missed that somehow.

Still pretty bloody big though.

[Brent]

Not looking good for Florida.